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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 4:27 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Illinois State at Dayton

Thursday 5 November, 7:00 PM ET at UD Arena · Illinois St rank 126 · 1-0, Dayton rank 146 · 0-0

Win probability

Why the model sees it this way

The game in numbers

The matchup

In brief

Dayton (0-0, rank 146) hosts Illinois State (1-0, rank 126) on Thursday, November 5 at 7:00 PM ET at UD Arena. The model gives Dayton a 59% chance to win, with a projected score of Dayton 72, Illinois St 69: a margin of 3.2 and a total of 141 points.