Baylor Bears

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs C Arkansas · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

C Arkansas5%95%Baylor

Projected 80-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament80%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.5

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 24-8

Net rating+24.2Rank 27 of 363 · offence 29, defence 29

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-8 (19 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 15%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 6.5
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field80%
Round of 3255%
Sweet 1617%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Fairleigh Dickinsonrank 157	Home	98%	92-63	W 87-66	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Central Arkansasrank 116	Home	95%	80-56	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christirank 333	Home	100%	88-44	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Prairie View A&Mrank 361	Home	100%	96-41	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 80% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Central ArkansasA win: 80% · a loss: 82%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trinity TurnerG · transfer from Georgia	1	31.0	5.0	5.0	10.0	+4.3	+3.7
Reese RossF · transfer from Utah	1	30.0	7.0	13.0	0.0	+2.9	+2.8
Tianna ThompsonG · transfer from Ole Miss	1	28.0	12.0	1.0	1.0	+4.1	+3.2
Ines GoryanovaG	1	22.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.2
Taliah ScottG	1	21.0	15.0	1.0	1.0	+6.7	+3.4
Kate KovalF · transfer from LSU	1	21.0	14.0	8.0	3.0	+10.2	+4.8
Kayla NelmsF	1	20.0	14.0	11.0	0.0	+5.0	+2.7
Skylar JonesG · transfer from Louisville	1	19.0	13.0	2.0	1.0	+7.5	+3.4
Lorena AwouC · transfer from NC State	1	8.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	+2.2	+0.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.6%rank 25	45.0%rank 255	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.1%rank 264	22.0%rank 348	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 136	32.6%rank 78	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.2%rank 292	19.5%rank 92	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.7 points a game (they shot 38.9%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +25.0
Last season's net rating: +27.0
Last season's minutes returning: 37%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +15.9
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.0 (rank 29)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 80.8 (rank 29)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.2 (rank 84)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.6 (rank 136)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.8	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.3	83.5	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.2	81.8	57
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.7	62
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	97.8	88.4	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	95.8	90.4	99
15	UCF	1-0	0-0	+1.0	90.8	89.9	131
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	173