West Virginia Mountaineers

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs G Washington · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

G Washington5%96%West Virginia

Projected 78-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament77%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 23-9

Net rating+23.3Rank 29 of 363 · offence 35, defence 28

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 11%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 6.1
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field77%
Round of 3254%
Sweet 1618%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Rhode Islandrank 79	Home	93%	78-57	W 68-64	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs George Washingtonrank 136	Home	96%	78-54	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Georgia Techrank 71	Away	64%	71-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 77% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs George WashingtonA win: 77% · a loss: 78%−1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at Georgia TechA win: 80% · a loss: 71%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gia CookeG	1	34.0	28.0	1.0	3.0	+6.6	+5.5
Skylar ForbesF · transfer from Marquette	1	33.0	8.0	7.0	0.0	+5.3	+4.5
Khyala NgoduC · transfer from UCF	1	29.0	4.0	8.0	3.0	+5.1	+3.9
Zahirah WaltonG · transfer from George Mason	1	28.0	12.0	2.0	2.0	+7.1	+4.8
Kennedy HarrisG · transfer from George Mason	1	20.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+4.9	+2.6
Marya HudginsG · transfer from BYU	1	19.0	0.0	6.0	0.0	+4.5	+2.3
Nylah WilsonG · transfer from Pitt	1	18.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Divine TumbaF	1	11.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.4
Madison ParrishG	1	8.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	+4.1	+0.9

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.8%rank 284	46.5%rank 333	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.5%rank 286	24.2%rank 97	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.4%rank 80	34.9%rank 307	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.3%rank 76	19.4%rank 83	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.6 points a game (they shot 41.7%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +26.0
Last season's net rating: +36.0
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.0
Change since preseason: −2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.9 (rank 35)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 80.6 (rank 28)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 160)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +9.6 (rank 77)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.8	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.3	83.5	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.2	81.8	57
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.7	62
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	97.8	88.4	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	95.8	90.4	99
15	UCF	1-0	0-0	+1.0	90.8	89.9	131
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	173