Louisville Cardinals

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at S Indiana · Sun 8 Nov, 4 PM ET

Louisville95%5%S Indiana

Projected 80-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.5

Wins the national title2%Final Four 15% · projected 29-5

Net rating+35.8Rank 8 of 363 · offence 13, defence 6

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 29-5 (25 to 33 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 49%
Wins the conference tournament: 33%
Average seed if in the field: 3.5
A 1 seed: 10%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3293%
Sweet 1670%
Elite Eight35%
Final Four15%
Title game7%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bellarminerank 343	Home	100%	110-52	W 119-47	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Stetsonrank 250	Home	100%	92-50	W 87-35	Right
Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET	at Southern Indianarank 106	Away	95%	80-57	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Lindenwoodrank 243	Home	100%	88-45	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	at Ball Staterank 88	Away	93%	83-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 10% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Southern IndianaA win: 10% · a loss: 9%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Ball StateA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tajianna RobertsG	2	23.0	14.5	2.0	3.0	+8.1	+4.4
Carys BakerF · transfer from Virginia Tech	2	21.0	6.5	6.0	2.5	+7.9	+3.9
Zamareya JonesG · transfer from NC State	2	21.0	11.0	4.5	6.5	+8.2	+4.0
Deniya PrawlG · transfer from Tennessee	2	19.0	6.0	4.5	1.0	+6.5	+3.1
Ariyana CradleG	2	17.5	10.5	4.0	1.0	+0.9	+1.0
Imari BerryG	2	17.0	15.0	2.5	2.0	+11.2	+4.2
Reagan BenderG	2	16.5	4.0	2.0	0.5	+7.0	+2.8
Ayse Melek DemirerF	2	16.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.9
Amiya JoynerF · transfer from LSU	2	14.5	11.5	9.0	1.0	+12.2	+3.9
Grace MbuguaF	2	12.0	9.5	4.5	0.5	+7.5	+2.1
Rebekah GravesG	2	10.0	5.5	1.0	0.0	+5.3	+1.4
Elif IstanbulluogluF	1	13.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+10.1	+3.0
Mackenly RandolphF	1	12.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	+10.7	+2.9

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.5%rank 10	41.5%rank 5	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.9%rank 13	27.9%rank 3	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.9%rank 57	33.3%rank 118	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.8%rank 256	20.7%rank 252	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.6 points a game (they shot 12.5%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.6
Last season's net rating: +38.1
Last season's minutes returning: 57%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +15.8
Change since preseason: +0.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.2 (rank 13)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.3 (rank 6)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 75)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.0 (rank 230)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.2	75.3	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.3	74.8	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.4	81.8	19
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.5	78.1	20
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.4	79.1	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.5	80.5	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.4	81.0	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.2	83.3	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.1	84.1	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.7	83.0	52
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.5	84.9	53
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.4	100.2	85.8	61
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.8	87.1	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.7	85.3	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.8	89.4	86.6	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.7	89.8	134
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.1	93.0	159
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.3	94.2	187