Virginia Cavaliers

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Davidson · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Virginia45%55%Davidson

Projected 66-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament31%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+17.0Rank 47 of 363 · offence 49, defence 51

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.8
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field31%
Round of 3217%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Maryland Eastern Shorerank 298	Home	98%	92-64	W 87-45	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Davidsonrank 66	Away	45%	66-68	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs William & Maryrank 201	Home	96%	78-53	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Drexelrank 148	Home	92%	75-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 31% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at DavidsonA win: 36% · a loss: 27%+10 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs William & MaryA win: 31% · a loss: 31%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs DrexelA win: 31% · a loss: 32%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Breona HurdF	1	29.0	11.0	12.0	1.0	+4.3	+3.4
Caterina PiattiF · transfer from Florida	1	28.0	5.0	3.0	3.0	+2.5	+2.4
Kymora JohnsonG	1	27.0	21.0	4.0	4.0	+9.4	+5.7
Mary-Anna AsareG · transfer from VCU	1	26.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+1.9	+1.9
Adeang RingF	1	22.0	13.0	10.0	0.0	+4.9	+2.8
Sintija AukstikalnyteG	1	17.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.8
Erica GribbleG	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	+0.6	+0.8
Janae WalkerF · transfer from Rutgers	1	13.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.6
Olivia McGheeG	1	12.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+3.0	+1.1
Lyla CoogenF	1	10.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.7%rank 59	44.4%rank 114	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.3%rank 274	24.8%rank 52	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.2%rank 251	30.7%rank 9	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.7%rank 25	19.9%rank 120	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.5 points a game (they shot 11.8%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.4
Last season's net rating: +25.6
Last season's minutes returning: 38%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.8
Change since preseason: +2.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.1 (rank 49)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 84.1 (rank 51)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 200)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −16.5 (rank 223)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.2	75.3	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.3	74.8	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.4	81.8	19
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.5	78.1	20
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.4	79.1	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.5	80.5	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.4	81.0	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.2	83.3	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.1	84.1	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.7	83.0	52
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.5	84.9	53
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.4	100.2	85.8	61
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.8	87.1	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.7	85.3	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.8	89.4	86.6	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.7	89.8	134
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.1	93.0	159
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.3	94.2	187