Davidson Wildcats

Women's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Virginia · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Virginia45%55%Davidson

Projected 68-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament30%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 23-11

Net rating+13.3Rank 66 of 363 · offence 65, defence 63

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-11 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 25%
Wins the conference tournament: 20%
Average seed if in the field: 10.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field30%
Round of 327%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Columbiarank 43	Away	20%	73-85	L 65-71	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Virginiarank 47	Home	55%	68-66	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Campbellrank 287	Home	98%	75-48	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs App Staterank 145	Home	88%	72-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 30% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs VirginiaA win: 31% · a loss: 28%+3 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs CampbellA win: 30% · a loss: 31%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs App StateA win: 30% · a loss: 29%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Katie DonovanG	1	37.0	22.0	7.0	3.0	+4.3	+4.3
Kyra BruyndoncxG	1	36.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+2.7	+3.1
Elena Alvarez CastellanosG	1	32.0	5.0	1.0	7.0	+2.4	+2.6
Emilie BessellG	1	26.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	+2.8	+2.3
Asha NightingaleF	1	24.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+1.4	+1.6
Lilli OnnelaG	1	17.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.6
Ines Garcia MonjeF	1	16.0	0.0	5.0	3.0	+4.3	+1.9
Jasmine TimmersonG	1	8.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	+3.1	+0.8
Sharni ReisingerG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 93	45.3%rank 272	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.2%rank 23	23.4%rank 265	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.4%rank 78	31.1%rank 19	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 102	19.8%rank 109	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.3 points a game (they shot 44.4%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.2
Last season's net rating: +14.3
Last season's minutes returning: 62%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.9
Change since preseason: +2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.9 (rank 65)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.6 (rank 63)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 322)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +18.0 (rank 42)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Joseph's	0-0	0-0	+15.2	100.4	85.2	59
2	Richmond	1-0	0-0	+13.8	101.8	88.0	63
3	Davidson	0-1	0-0	+13.3	98.9	85.6	66
4	Rhode Island	0-1	0-0	+9.6	96.1	86.4	79
5	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+8.4	96.8	88.4	86
6	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+0.6	91.5	90.9	136
7	Dayton	0-0	0-0	−0.6	91.5	92.1	146
8	VCU	1-0	0-0	−2.2	86.6	88.8	166
9	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−2.7	89.0	91.7	168
10	Fordham	1-0	0-0	−3.0	86.3	89.2	174
11	Saint Louis	0-1	0-0	−6.2	89.3	95.5	198
12	St. Bonaventure	1-0	0-0	−7.2	86.6	93.8	206
13	Duquesne	0-1	0-0	−8.7	87.0	95.7	219
14	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−10.5	86.1	96.6	236