Michigan Wolverines

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 0-0, 0-0 in conference

Next: vs UConn · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

UConn54%46%Michigan

Projected 72-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament>99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 1.9

Wins the national title14%Final Four 45% · projected 28-4

Net rating+43.9Rank 3 of 363 · offence 4, defence 2

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-4 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 55%
Wins the conference tournament: 39%
Average seed if in the field: 1.9
A 1 seed: 54%

Makes the field>99%
Round of 3298%
Sweet 1690%
Elite Eight68%
Final Four45%
Title game27%
Champion14%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs UConnrank 1	Home	46%	72-73	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Wright Staterank 281	Home	100%	100-44	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at Columbiarank 43	Away	90%	81-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 54% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs UConnA win: 60% · a loss: 49%+11 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at ColumbiaA win: 54% · a loss: 50%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 136	44.7%rank 131	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 142	23.8%rank 125	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 136	33.5%rank 134	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 127	20.4%rank 141	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

0 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +43.9
Last season's net rating: +44.2
Last season's minutes returning: 80%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.7 (rank 4)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 71.8 (rank 2)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.9 (rank 45)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.7	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.3	111.8	73.5	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.3	78.4	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	109.9	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.1	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+32.0	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.3	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.8	78.1	18
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.2	80.3	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.0	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.0	83.6	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.9	102.3	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	87.0	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	96.9	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.8	91.9	132