Ohio State Buckeyes

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs C Michigan · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

C Michigan0%100%Ohio State

Projected 90-47 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.8

Wins the national title4%Final Four 24% · projected 27-6

Net rating+38.3Rank 5 of 363 · offence 10, defence 3

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 22%
Wins the conference tournament: 17%
Average seed if in the field: 2.8
A 1 seed: 26%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3296%
Sweet 1679%
Elite Eight48%
Final Four24%
Title game11%
Champion4%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UICrank 202	Home	100%	101-63	W 81-34	Right
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Central Michiganrank 191	Home	100%	90-47	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Mercyhurstrank 319	Home	100%	96-42	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs UConnrank 1	Home	31%	69-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 26% · the next 7 days

Thu 12 Nov: vs UConnA win: 33% · a loss: 23%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kennedy CambridgeG	1	29.0	10.0	6.0	2.0	+10.2	+6.7
Jaloni CambridgeG	1	28.0	22.0	9.0	3.0	+13.0	+8.0
Ava WatsonG	1	26.0	6.0	2.0	4.0	+7.3	+4.6
Kylee KittsG	1	24.0	7.0	9.0	2.0	+8.1	+4.6
Elsa LemmilaC	1	21.0	15.0	11.0	2.0	+10.7	+5.1
Adriana DiazF	1	19.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.3
Bryn MartinG	1	18.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	+7.0	+3.1
Sydney MobleyF	1	16.0	14.0	3.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.2
Seini HenryG	1	10.0	0.0	5.0	0.0	+6.3	+1.6
Atlee VaneskoG	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.3%rank 257	42.3%rank 13	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 135	25.3%rank 34	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	36.7%rank 5	34.5%rank 290	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 280	18.7%rank 40	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.0 points a game (they shot 10.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.3
Last season's net rating: +33.7
Last season's minutes returning: 76%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +3.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.8 (rank 10)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 73.5 (rank 3)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.2 (rank 33)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.8 (rank 166)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.7	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.3	111.8	73.5	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.3	78.4	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	109.9	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.1	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+32.0	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.3	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.8	78.1	18
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.2	80.3	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.0	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.0	83.6	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.9	102.3	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	87.0	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	96.9	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.8	91.9	132