Florida Gators

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Jacksonville · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Jacksonville0%100%Florida

Projected 94-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament>99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 1.7

Wins the national title14%Final Four 39% · projected 28-4

Net rating+32.8Rank 2 of 365 · offence 3, defence 2

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-4 (24 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 63%
Wins the conference tournament: 39%
Average seed if in the field: 1.7
A 1 seed: 61%

Makes the field>99%
Round of 3299%
Sweet 1681%
Elite Eight59%
Final Four39%
Title game24%
Champion14%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Miamirank 31	Neutral	85%	79-66	W 77-67	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Jacksonvillerank 264	Home	100%	94-54	—
Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET	at Florida Staterank 54	Away	82%	85-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 61% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: at Florida StateA win: 62% · a loss: 53%+9 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Thomas HaughF	1	38.0	19.0	10.0	4.0	+7.6	+6.7
Boogie FlandG	1	33.0	12.0	3.0	4.0	+6.1	+4.9
Denzel AberdeenG · transfer from Kentucky	1	30.0	7.0	0.0	2.0	+4.7	+3.7
Rueben ChinyeluC	1	29.0	6.0	14.0	3.0	+8.9	+5.8
Alex CondonF	1	26.0	11.0	7.0	3.0	+8.4	+5.0
Urban KlavzarG	1	19.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	+5.8	+2.7
Isaiah BrownG	1	14.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+6.2	+2.1
Domen PetrovicF	1	10.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.5
Arturas ButajevasF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.9%rank 101	48.4%rank 23	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 119	18.1%rank 290	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 207	31.2%rank 112	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.1%rank 46	26.8%rank 309	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.5 points a game (they shot 23.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +34.6
Last season's net rating: +33.8
Last season's minutes returning: 79%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.4
Change since preseason: −1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 121.2 (rank 3)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.5 (rank 2)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 44)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +20.1 (rank 29)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94