Tennessee Volunteers

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Radford · Mon 9 Nov, 7 PM ET

Radford0%100%Tennessee

Projected 91-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament95%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.4

Wins the national title5%Final Four 18% · projected 25-7

Net rating+27.7Rank 7 of 365 · offence 11, defence 8

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-7 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 20%
Wins the conference tournament: 17%
Average seed if in the field: 3.4
A 1 seed: 19%

Makes the field95%
Round of 3287%
Sweet 1660%
Elite Eight35%
Final Four18%
Title game9%
Champion5%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Woffordrank 212	Home	99%	91-59	W 90-59	Right
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Radfordrank 221	Home	100%	91-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 95% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
DeWayne Brown IIF	1	31.0	17.0	17.0	3.0	+6.1	+4.5
Juke HarrisG · transfer from Wake Forest	1	26.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	+7.5	+4.4
Miles RubinC · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	23.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	+4.6	+2.7
Tyler LundbladeG · transfer from Belmont	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+4.7	+2.6
Terrence Hill Jr.G · transfer from VCU	1	22.0	17.0	2.0	3.0	+7.4	+3.7
Dai Dai AmesG · transfer from California	1	20.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+5.0	+2.5
Jalen HaralsonG · transfer from Notre Dame	1	18.0	6.0	6.0	2.0	+6.3	+2.6
Braedan LueF · transfer from Kennesaw St	1	14.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+1.4
Troy HendersonG	1	12.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	+5.2	+1.5
Marquis ClarkG	1	4.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.3
Christian FerminF · transfer from VCU	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+0.3
Manny GreenG	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	+1.8	+0.2
Chris Washington Jr.F	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.8%rank 110	48.7%rank 34	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 103	17.8%rank 314	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.6%rank 217	32.0%rank 254	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.2%rank 280	25.6%rank 256	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.2 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +28.1
Last season's net rating: +26.8
Last season's minutes returning: 9%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +10.8
Change since preseason: −0.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 119.1 (rank 11)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.4 (rank 8)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 265)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.7 (rank 176)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94