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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 4:27 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Men's projected bracket

The most likely field of 68 from 20,000 simulated seasons. The figure beside each team is how often it made the field.

Updated Thu 5 Nov, 4:27 PM ET

Last four in

At-large place, least often
  1. Oklahoma StateBig 1239%
  2. Ohio StateBig Ten40%
  3. MarylandBig Ten40%
  4. West VirginiaBig 1241%

First four out

At-large place, next most often
  1. USCBig Ten37%
  2. VillanovaBig East36%
  3. OregonBig Ten36%
  4. ClemsonACC35%

Next four out

At-large place
  1. BaylorBig 1234%
  2. ColoradoBig 1234%
  3. CreightonBig East34%
  4. GeorgiaSEC31%

Seed lines

The favourite in each conference takes its automatic bid; seeded by average seed
1
  1. FloridaSEC · auto bid>99%
  2. DukeACC · auto bid>99%
  3. IllinoisBig Ten · auto bid99%
  4. KansasBig 12 · auto bid99%
2
  1. HoustonBig 1299%
  2. MichiganBig Ten97%
  3. Michigan StBig Ten95%
  4. TennesseeSEC95%
3
  1. Texas TechBig 1294%
  2. AlabamaSEC86%
  3. NebraskaBig Ten89%
  4. UConnBig East · auto bid89%
4
  1. CincinnatiBig 1291%
  2. Iowa StateBig 1292%
  3. PurdueBig Ten79%
  4. VanderbiltSEC85%
5
  1. St John'sBig East81%
  2. UCLABig Ten81%
  3. ArizonaBig 1273%
  4. IowaBig Ten74%
6
  1. LouisvilleACC79%
  2. BYUBig 1277%
  3. AuburnSEC73%
  4. TexasSEC70%
7
  1. KentuckySEC66%
  2. MarquetteBig East72%
  3. ArkansasSEC65%
  4. VirginiaACC71%
8
  1. XavierBig East63%
  2. MissouriSEC56%
  3. WisconsinBig Ten47%
  4. IndianaBig Ten52%
9
  1. GonzagaPac-12 · auto bid84%
  2. Ole MissSEC59%
  3. MiamiACC72%
  4. Ohio StateBig Ten · last four in42%
10
  1. MarylandBig Ten · last four in41%
  2. North CarolinaACC45%
  3. Texas A&MSEC45%
  4. Oklahoma StBig 12 · last four in40%
11
  1. TCUBig 1246%
  2. West VirginiaBig 12 · last four in42%
  3. New MexicoMountain West · auto bid65%
  4. Saint LouisAtlantic 10 · auto bid54%
  5. Saint Mary'sWest Coast · auto bid60%
  6. Wichita StAmerican · auto bid37%
12
  1. Murray StMissouri Valley · auto bid27%
  2. Miami OHMid-American · auto bid32%
  3. UC San DiegoBig West · auto bid26%
  4. YaleIvy · auto bid33%
13
  1. McNeeseSouthland · auto bid62%
  2. High PointBig South · auto bid70%
  3. Montana StBig Sky · auto bid33%
  4. UNC WilmingtonCoastal Athletic Association · auto bid19%
14
  1. Western KYConference USA · auto bid19%
  2. Wright StHorizon · auto bid28%
  3. St ThomasSummit · auto bid33%
  4. C ArkansasUnited · auto bid30%
15
  1. FurmanSouthern · auto bid21%
  2. App StateSun Belt · auto bid16%
  3. QueensAtlantic Sun · auto bid27%
  4. AmericanPatriot · auto bid28%
16
  1. FairfieldMetro · auto bid16%
  2. SE MissouriOhio Valley · auto bid28%
  3. HowardMid-Eastern · auto bid54%
  4. SouthernSouthwestern · auto bid20%
  5. VermontAmerica East · auto bid25%
  6. C ConnecticutNortheast · auto bid22%

Bracket helper

Title favouriteDuke 21%If the tournament started today, on the projected bracket above
Best bracket's championDukeFinal Four: Florida, Duke, Illinois, Kansas
Expected points947 of 1,920ESPN scoring, 10 points a first-round pick doubling each round
First-round upsets picked2Games where the best bracket takes the lower seed

East

Chance to reach each round
SeedTeamSweet 16Elite EightTitle gameTitlePicked to reach
1Florida85%67%28%18%Final Four
16SouthernFirst Four0%0%0%0%
16VermontFirst Four0%0%0%0%
8Indiana4%1%<1%<1%
9Gonzaga11%5%<1%<1%Second round
5St John's42%10%1%<1%Second round
12Yale1%<1%0%0%
4Vanderbilt54%17%3%1%Sweet 16
13McNeese3%<1%0%0%
6Texas20%7%1%<1%Second round
11TCU9%3%<1%<1%
3Texas Tech71%39%7%4%Sweet 16
14C Arkansas<1%0%0%0%
7Kentucky21%8%1%<1%Second round
10Oklahoma St6%1%<1%<1%
2Tennessee73%42%9%4%Elite Eight
15Furman<1%0%0%0%

West

Chance to reach each round
SeedTeamSweet 16Elite EightTitle gameTitlePicked to reach
1Duke87%70%32%21%Champion
16HowardFirst Four0%0%0%0%
16C ConnecticutFirst Four0%0%0%0%
8Wisconsin4%2%<1%<1%
9Ole Miss9%4%<1%<1%Second round
5UCLA49%12%1%<1%Second round
12UC San Diego1%<1%0%0%
4Purdue47%12%2%<1%Sweet 16
13High Point3%<1%0%0%
6Auburn28%11%1%<1%Second round
11West Virginia11%3%<1%<1%
3Alabama62%29%4%1%Sweet 16
14St Thomas<1%0%0%0%
7Marquette18%7%<1%<1%Second round
10Texas A&M9%3%<1%<1%
2Michigan St74%47%10%5%Elite Eight
15App State<1%0%0%0%

South

Chance to reach each round
SeedTeamSweet 16Elite EightTitle gameTitlePicked to reach
1Illinois76%47%16%8%Final Four
16SE Missouri0%0%0%0%
8Missouri12%4%<1%<1%Second round
9Miami12%4%<1%<1%
5Arizona35%13%2%1%Second round
12Miami OH1%<1%0%0%
4Iowa State64%32%8%3%Sweet 16
13Montana St<1%<1%0%0%
6BYU31%11%1%<1%Second round
11New MexicoFirst Four6%1%<1%<1%
11Wichita StFirst Four1%<1%0%0%
3Nebraska61%27%4%1%Sweet 16
14Wright St<1%<1%0%0%
7Arkansas19%9%1%<1%Second round
10North Carolina6%2%<1%<1%
2Michigan75%50%13%6%Elite Eight
15Queens<1%0%0%0%

Midwest

Chance to reach each round
SeedTeamSweet 16Elite EightTitle gameTitlePicked to reach
1Kansas83%58%21%11%Title game
16Fairfield0%0%0%0%
8Xavier9%3%<1%<1%Second round
9Ohio State8%3%<1%<1%
5Iowa37%12%1%<1%Second round
12Murray St1%<1%0%0%
4Cincinnati62%24%5%2%Sweet 16
13UNC Wilmington<1%<1%0%0%
6Louisville31%10%1%<1%Second round
11Saint LouisFirst Four3%1%<1%0%
11Saint Mary'sFirst Four4%1%<1%0%
3UConn61%24%4%1%Sweet 16
14Western KY<1%0%0%0%
7Virginia14%6%1%<1%Second round
10Maryland5%2%<1%<1%
2Houston80%57%20%10%Elite Eight
15American<1%0%0%0%

Odds use today's ratings with no allowance for how teams change before March, so the favourites' chances are higher here than on the Projections page, which simulates the rest of the season too. Pool strategy, which picks against what everyone else in your pool is likely to pick, switches on once ESPN publishes the public's picks in March.