Illinois Fighting Illini

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Penn · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Penn1%99%Illinois

Projected 92-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.3

Wins the national title7%Final Four 26% · projected 27-7

Net rating+29.6Rank 5 of 365 · offence 1, defence 15

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-7 (23 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 42%
Wins the conference tournament: 27%
Average seed if in the field: 2.3
A 1 seed: 44%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3295%
Sweet 1671%
Elite Eight45%
Final Four26%
Title game14%
Champion7%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Fairleigh Dickinsonrank 343	Home	100%	85-48	W 120-45	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Pennsylvaniarank 131	Home	99%	92-63	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	at Texas Techrank 10	Away	42%	74-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 44% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs PennsylvaniaA win: 44% · a loss: 40%+3 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at Texas TechA win: 49% · a loss: 40%+9 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Zavier ZensF	1	24.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+2.9	+2.1
Quentin ColemanG	1	23.0	13.0	10.0	6.0	+3.0	+2.1
Ethan BrownG	1	23.0	12.0	9.0	7.0	+3.0	+2.1
Andrej StojakovicG	1	20.0	20.0	7.0	4.0	+10.7	+4.5
Lucas MorilloNA	1	19.0	9.0	8.0	1.0	+3.0	+1.7
Stefan VaaksG · transfer from Providence	1	19.0	20.0	3.0	4.0	+6.9	+3.0
Tomislav IvisicC	1	16.0	10.0	4.0	1.0	+10.2	+3.5
Landon DavisF	1	14.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+3.2	+1.3
Jason JakstysC	1	13.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	+8.0	+2.3
Zvonimir IvisicF	1	11.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	+12.2	+2.8
Blake FagbemiG	1	10.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	+7.2	+1.6
Jake DavisF	1	6.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+8.6	+1.1
Quentin McCoyG	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+3.5	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.3%rank 29	48.0%rank 12	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.4%rank 20	17.9%rank 305	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.9%rank 7	27.6%rank 1	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.1%rank 356	23.2%rank 40	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +17.0 points a game (they shot 15.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +28.0
Last season's net rating: +33.7
Last season's minutes returning: 57%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.7
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 123.2 (rank 1)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.5 (rank 15)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 265)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.8 (rank 271)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81