Texas Tech Red Raiders

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Bethune · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Bethune0%100%Texas Tech

Projected 93-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament94%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.8

Wins the national title4%Final Four 16% · projected 23-8

Net rating+27.2Rank 10 of 365 · offence 16, defence 6

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-8 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 18%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 3.8
A 1 seed: 13%

Makes the field94%
Round of 3285%
Sweet 1656%
Elite Eight31%
Final Four16%
Title game8%
Champion4%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Jackson Staterank 327	Home	100%	89-51	W 76-42	Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 329	Home	100%	93-55	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Illinoisrank 5	Home	58%	76-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 94% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: vs IllinoisA win: 95% · a loss: 92%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Cruz DavisG · transfer from Hofstra	1	31.0	15.0	6.0	5.0	+6.1	+4.5
Donovan AtwellG	1	27.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+6.9	+4.3
Dra Gibbs-LawhornG · transfer from UNLV	1	24.0	5.0	2.0	4.0	+5.9	+3.4
Darrion WilliamsF · transfer from NC State	1	24.0	1.0	5.0	3.0	+6.4	+3.6
Josiah MoseleyF	1	24.0	13.0	8.0	1.0	+7.2	+3.9
Damarion DennisG · transfer from Wyoming	1	23.0	22.0	3.0	0.0	+6.3	+3.4
DaKari SpearG	1	18.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.2
Bassala BagayokoF	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+1.8	+1.0
Amari BarrettG	1	5.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.4
Marial AkuentokF	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+4.8	+0.5
Trey HallF	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.3
LaTrell HooverF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.8%rank 263	49.0%rank 45	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 115	20.7%rank 4	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.4%rank 310	30.5%rank 58	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.1%rank 78	24.4%rank 99	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.1 points a game (they shot 20.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +27.6
Last season's net rating: +25.6
Last season's minutes returning: 34%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.5
Change since preseason: −0.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.8 (rank 16)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.7 (rank 6)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 265)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.9 (rank 258)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113