Houston Cougars

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs California · Sun 8 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Houston96%4%California

Projected 84-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.5

Wins the national title9%Final Four 28% · projected 27-5

Net rating+30.6Rank 4 of 365 · offence 6, defence 4

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-5 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 38%
Wins the conference tournament: 25%
Average seed if in the field: 2.5
A 1 seed: 36%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3295%
Sweet 1672%
Elite Eight48%
Final Four28%
Title game16%
Champion9%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs La Sallerank 199	Home	99%	81-50	W 94-55	Right
Sun 8 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Californiarank 105	Neutral	96%	84-63	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	vs Jacksonville Staterank 227	Home	100%	89-55	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 36% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs CaliforniaA win: 36% · a loss: 33%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dedan Thomas Jr.G · transfer from LSU	1	27.0	16.0	3.0	5.0	+6.9	+4.2
Mercy MillerG	1	26.0	5.0	7.0	5.0	+8.4	+4.8
Delrecco GillespieF · transfer from Kent State	1	22.0	13.0	7.0	2.0	+6.7	+3.4
Corey Hadnot IIG · transfer from Purdue FW	1	22.0	14.0	1.0	5.0	+5.0	+2.7
Arafan DianeC	1	21.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.4
Chase McCartyF	1	20.0	10.0	6.0	1.0	+7.8	+3.5
Joseph TuglerF	1	16.0	9.0	6.0	1.0	+10.6	+3.5
Braden EastF · transfer from Lamar	1	15.0	9.0	5.0	1.0	+5.8	+2.0
Kordel JeffersonG	1	13.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+5.8	+1.8
Bryce JacksonG	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.7
Ikenna AlozieG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.2
Tyus ThomasG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.2
Djafar SilimanaC	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.9%rank 100	48.1%rank 18	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 249	19.2%rank 54	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.5%rank 81	31.6%rank 155	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.2%rank 19	26.3%rank 291	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +13.8 points a game (they shot 20.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +30.8
Last season's net rating: +33.8
Last season's minutes returning: 23%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.1
Change since preseason: −0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 120.0 (rank 6)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.5 (rank 4)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.0 (rank 330)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.1 (rank 164)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113