Kansas Jayhawks

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs MTSU · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

MTSU1%99%Kansas

Projected 90-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.4

Wins the national title9%Final Four 29% · projected 26-6

Net rating+30.6Rank 3 of 365 · offence 8, defence 3

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-6 (22 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 35%
Wins the conference tournament: 26%
Average seed if in the field: 2.4
A 1 seed: 38%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3295%
Sweet 1673%
Elite Eight49%
Final Four29%
Title game16%
Champion9%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Fordhamrank 128	Home	98%	79-54	W 95-65	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Middle Tennesseerank 167	Home	99%	90-58	—
Tue 10 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Kentuckyrank 23	Neutral	74%	80-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 38% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Middle TennesseeA win: 38% · a loss: 38%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs KentuckyA win: 40% · a loss: 31%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Leroy Blyden Jr.G · transfer from Toledo	1	26.0	15.0	1.0	3.0	+5.8	+3.7
Tyran StokesG	1	25.0	15.0	7.0	1.0	+2.4	+2.0
Taylen KinneyG	1	24.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	+2.3	+1.9
Trey Kaufman-RennF · transfer from Purdue	1	23.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+10.7	+5.3
Tre WhiteG	1	23.0	22.0	5.0	1.0	+8.7	+4.5
Melvin Council Jr.G	1	23.0	10.0	6.0	7.0	+7.9	+4.1
Keanu DawesF · transfer from Utah	1	15.0	2.0	9.0	0.0	+6.9	+2.4
Christian ReevesC · transfer from Charleston	1	13.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	+8.1	+2.4
Dennis Parker Jr.G · transfer from Radford	1	6.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+6.0	+0.9
Trent PerryG	1	6.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.5
Luke BarnettG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.4
Paul MbiyaC	1	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0	+6.4	+0.6
Davion AdkinsF	1	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.3
Will ThengvallG	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+5.6	+0.3
Atticus RichmondF	1	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+3.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.1%rank 37	49.7%rank 83	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.7%rank 338	18.5%rank 215	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.3%rank 40	32.1%rank 260	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.9%rank 234	23.3%rank 46	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.0 points a game (they shot 39.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +29.0
Last season's net rating: +24.5
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.2
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 119.8 (rank 8)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.2 (rank 3)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 100)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −0.3 (rank 114)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113