Iowa State Cyclones

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Southern Miss · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Southern Miss0%100%Iowa State

Projected 93-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament92%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.5

Wins the national title4%Final Four 15% · projected 24-8

Net rating+27.2Rank 9 of 365 · offence 7, defence 12

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-8 (20 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 17%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 4.5
A 1 seed: 7%

Makes the field92%
Round of 3281%
Sweet 1652%
Elite Eight29%
Final Four15%
Title game8%
Champion4%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Memphisrank 85	Neutral	94%	80-60	L 76-80	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southern Missrank 250	Home	100%	93-59	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southernrank 291	Home	100%	94-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 92% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tamin LipseyG	1	34.0	12.0	2.0	2.0	+8.0	+6.1
Tre SingletonF · transfer from Northwestern	1	28.0	11.0	11.0	1.0	+3.5	+2.8
Ryan Prather Jr.G · transfer from Robert Morris	1	27.0	19.0	1.0	1.0	+3.4	+2.6
Blake BuchananF	1	26.0	6.0	6.0	2.0	+7.5	+4.4
Jamarion BatemonG	1	26.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+5.0	+3.2
Jaquan JohnsonG · transfer from Bradley	1	21.0	9.0	0.0	3.0	+6.1	+3.1
Taj ManningF · transfer from Kansas St	1	14.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	+3.1	+1.3
Leon Bond IIIG · transfer from Northern Iowa	1	12.0	0.0	4.0	1.0	+4.6	+1.4
Dominykas PletaF	1	12.0	15.0	3.0	1.0	+6.4	+1.8

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.8%rank 268	50.3%rank 144	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 74	18.5%rank 216	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.3%rank 92	32.3%rank 269	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.3%rank 41	28.4%rank 352	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.6 points a game (they shot 45.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +30.6
Last season's net rating: +32.7
Last season's minutes returning: 53%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.1
Change since preseason: −3.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 120.0 (rank 7)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.8 (rank 12)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.3 (rank 200)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +8.7 (rank 82)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113