Michigan Wolverines

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UConn · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

UConn40%60%Michigan

Projected 76-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament97%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.6

Wins the national title5%Final Four 22% · projected 25-7

Net rating+28.1Rank 6 of 365 · offence 4, defence 11

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-7 (20 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 31%
Wins the conference tournament: 21%
Average seed if in the field: 2.6
A 1 seed: 35%

Makes the field97%
Round of 3292%
Sweet 1666%
Elite Eight39%
Final Four22%
Title game11%
Champion5%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Oaklandrank 157	Home	100%	89-55	W 84-68	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs UConnrank 12	Neutral	60%	76-73	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Marquetterank 29	Home	82%	83-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 35% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs UConnA win: 39% · a loss: 30%+9 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs MarquetteA win: 36% · a loss: 30%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trey McKenneyG	1	35.0	17.0	4.0	2.0	+7.2	+5.9
Elliot CadeauG	1	34.0	7.0	0.0	6.0	+7.3	+5.8
Roddy Gayle Jr.G	1	25.0	17.0	3.0	2.0	+7.5	+4.3
Oscar GoodmanF	1	22.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	+5.5	+3.0
J.P. EstrellaF · transfer from Tennessee	1	21.0	15.0	12.0	1.0	+8.1	+3.9
Quinn CostelloF	1	21.0	13.0	4.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.1
Jalen ReedF · transfer from LSU	1	17.0	6.0	8.0	0.0	+4.2	+1.9
Ricky LiburdG	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	+0.9	+0.8
Kenny NolandG · transfer from Columbia	1	10.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+4.3	+1.2
Marcus MollerC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.1%rank 310	48.9%rank 41	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.0%rank 66	18.5%rank 220	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.7%rank 70	35.0%rank 360	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.8%rank 299	27.5%rank 330	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.2 points a game (they shot 23.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +30.8
Last season's net rating: +40.9
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.5
Change since preseason: −2.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 120.5 (rank 4)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.4 (rank 11)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 36)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.0 (rank 133)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81