Michigan State Spartans

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Toledo · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Toledo1%99%Michigan St

Projected 89-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament95%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.4

Wins the national title4%Final Four 18% · projected 26-8

Net rating+27.6Rank 8 of 365 · offence 9, defence 9

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-8 (21 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 23%
Wins the conference tournament: 18%
Average seed if in the field: 3.4
A 1 seed: 21%

Makes the field95%
Round of 3288%
Sweet 1660%
Elite Eight34%
Final Four18%
Title game9%
Champion4%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Quinnipiacrank 251	Home	99%	84-52	W 96-59	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Toledorank 132	Home	99%	89-62	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Dukerank 1	Neutral	35%	72-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 95% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs ToledoA win: 95% · a loss: 89%+6 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs DukeA win: 95% · a loss: 94%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jeremy Fears Jr.G	1	26.0	13.0	1.0	11.0	+9.9	+5.5
Coen CarrF	1	25.0	12.0	8.0	0.0	+8.2	+4.5
Jasiah JervisG	1	23.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.6
Jordan ScottF	1	22.0	11.0	6.0	3.0	+6.6	+3.4
Anton BonkeC · transfer from Charlotte	1	20.0	11.0	13.0	0.0	+6.1	+2.9
Cam WardF	1	16.0	9.0	5.0	1.0	+7.3	+2.7
Kur TengG	1	15.0	11.0	0.0	3.0	+6.4	+2.2
Ethan TaylorC	1	14.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+2.0	+1.0
Carlos Medlock Jr.G	1	14.0	9.0	1.0	4.0	+2.0	+1.0
Kaleb GlennF	1	12.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.9
Julius AventF	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.5
Brennan WaltonF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.7	+0.3
Colin WaltonF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.7	+0.3
Matthew WatkinsG	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+2.3	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.1%rank 40	49.7%rank 89	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.7%rank 240	18.7%rank 118	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.4%rank 38	31.2%rank 115	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.4%rank 270	25.4%rank 246	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.4 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +26.7
Last season's net rating: +28.6
Last season's minutes returning: 60%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.1
Change since preseason: +0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 119.4 (rank 9)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.7 (rank 9)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.0 (rank 230)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −9.5 (rank 199)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81