Duke Blue Devils

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Coastal · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Coastal0%100%Duke

Projected 92-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament>99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 1.8

Wins the national title16%Final Four 41% · projected 31-4

Net rating+33.5Rank 1 of 365 · offence 2, defence 1

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 31-4 (27 to 34 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 81%
Wins the conference tournament: 61%
Average seed if in the field: 1.8
A 1 seed: 59%

Makes the field>99%
Round of 3298%
Sweet 1681%
Elite Eight60%
Final Four41%
Title game26%
Champion16%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Armyrank 301	Home	100%	88-48	W 84-50	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Coastal Carolinarank 257	Home	100%	92-54	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Michigan Staterank 8	Neutral	65%	76-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 59% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: vs Michigan StateA win: 63% · a loss: 52%+11 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Patrick Ngongba IIC	1	24.0	10.0	7.0	1.0	+11.5	+5.7
John BlackwellG · transfer from Wisconsin	1	24.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+9.2	+4.8
Dame SarrF	1	21.0	16.0	4.0	3.0	+8.5	+3.9
Caleb FosterG	1	20.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+8.5	+3.7
Cayden BoozerG	1	20.0	9.0	3.0	3.0	+9.4	+4.0
Deron Rippey Jr.G	1	20.0	7.0	2.0	4.0	+2.7	+1.7
Sebastian WilkinsF	1	19.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.6
Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC	1	19.0	15.0	7.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.6
Cameron WilliamsF	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+2.9	+1.0
Bryson HowardG	1	10.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.9
Drew ScharnowskiF · transfer from Belmont	1	8.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	+9.4	+1.6
Maxime MeyerC	1	4.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+3.1	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 252	50.0%rank 113	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 278	20.7%rank 3	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.0%rank 56	32.0%rank 258	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.6%rank 62	23.6%rank 60	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.1 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +33.8
Last season's net rating: +38.4
Last season's minutes returning: 43%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.5
Change since preseason: −0.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 121.9 (rank 2)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.4 (rank 1)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.4 (rank 295)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −13.8 (rank 235)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109