Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Vanderbilt · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Wake Forest7%93%Vanderbilt

Projected 67-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-16

Net rating+7.5Rank 90 of 365 · offence 92, defence 89

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (12 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field6%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Maryland Eastern Shorerank 337	Home	98%	78-53	W 83-62	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at Vanderbiltrank 14	Away	7%	67-84	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Charleston Southernrank 259	Home	95%	87-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 6% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at VanderbiltA win: 15% · a loss: 6%+9 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Charleston SouthernA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kevair KennedyG · transfer from Merrimack	1	32.0	14.0	9.0	8.0	+3.3	+3.1
Gavin PlacideF	1	31.0	20.0	7.0	2.0	−0.1	+1.1
Justin RayG · transfer from Monmouth	1	28.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	+1.1	+1.6
Gallagher PlacideF	1	22.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8
Jamari McDowellG · transfer from Kansas	1	19.0	11.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+1.7
Isaac CarrG	1	18.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.0
Xander PintelonF · transfer from FAU	1	16.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+2.3	+1.2
Ring NyeriF · transfer from N Colorado	1	12.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+2.2	+0.9
Antonio DornC · transfer from Virginia Tech	1	8.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.7
Lukas BojovicG	1	8.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	+0.3	+0.3
Justin AbsonF	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.3
Vincent RicchiutiF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.1%rank 86	50.7%rank 251	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 117	19.3%rank 52	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.1%rank 255	33.4%rank 329	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.8%rank 243	23.5%rank 54	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.7 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +7.3
Last season's net rating: +12.6
Last season's minutes returning: 4%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.8
Change since preseason: +0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.6 (rank 92)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.2 (rank 89)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 125)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.2 (rank 267)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109