LSU Tigers

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Texas Southern · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Texas Southern0%100%LSU

Projected 110-38 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.9

Wins the national title6%Final Four 27% · projected 29-5

Net rating+40.1Rank 4 of 363 · offence 3, defence 9

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 29-5 (25 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 35%
Wins the conference tournament: 22%
Average seed if in the field: 2.9
A 1 seed: 19%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3297%
Sweet 1681%
Elite Eight52%
Final Four27%
Title game14%
Champion6%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs SE Louisianarank 280	Home	100%	111-59	W 129-35	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Texas Southernrank 363	Home	100%	110-38	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs McNeeserank 216	Home	100%	96-48	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 19% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jada WilliamsG · transfer from Iowa State	1	28.0	5.0	0.0	8.0	+7.8	+5.3
ZaKiyah JohnsonG	1	28.0	33.0	13.0	3.0	+11.6	+7.4
Mikaylah WilliamsG	1	25.0	19.0	5.0	6.0	+11.2	+6.4
MiLaysia FulwileyG	1	25.0	20.0	1.0	4.0	+13.9	+7.7
Grace KnoxF	1	24.0	14.0	8.0	2.0	+10.3	+5.7
Laila ReynoldsG · transfer from Florida	1	23.0	8.0	7.0	3.0	+5.7	+3.4
Lola LampleyG	1	16.0	14.0	2.0	1.0	+0.5	+0.8
Anna MinaevaF	1	16.0	14.0	10.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.8
Chloe LarryG · transfer from Tennessee Tech	1	15.0	2.0	5.0	4.0	+2.5	+1.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.3%rank 11	43.8%rank 83	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.7%rank 49	27.6%rank 5	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	39.4%rank 1	32.5%rank 72	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.1%rank 87	21.9%rank 317	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.2 points a game (they shot 21.1%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +40.0
Last season's net rating: +49.5
Last season's minutes returning: 45%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.5
Change since preseason: +0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.1 (rank 3)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 77.0 (rank 9)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 76.6 (rank 8)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.1 (rank 210)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90