Oklahoma Sooners

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Morgan St · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Morgan St0%100%Oklahoma

Projected 100-40 · Game page

Makes the tournament98%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.3

Wins the national title2%Final Four 16% · projected 26-7

Net rating+35.5Rank 9 of 363 · offence 12, defence 8

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-7 (22 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 11%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 3.3
A 1 seed: 15%

Makes the field98%
Round of 3293%
Sweet 1670%
Elite Eight36%
Final Four16%
Title game7%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs North Carolinarank 20	Neutral	58%	87-84	W 91-79	Right
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Morgan Staterank 347	Home	100%	100-40	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs San José Staterank 301	Home	100%	98-45	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 15% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sahara WilliamsF	1	31.0	22.0	6.0	4.0	+9.8	+7.2
LeeLee BellF	1	29.0	25.0	8.0	4.0	+1.0	+1.8
Aaliyah ChavezG	1	25.0	14.0	5.0	6.0	+9.6	+5.7
Jordan SpeiserG · transfer from Kansas St	1	25.0	8.0	5.0	2.0	+5.9	+3.9
Sa'Myah SmithF · transfer from Virginia	1	20.0	4.0	5.0	1.0	+6.2	+3.3
Caya SmithF	1	18.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+8.1	+3.6
Keziah LoftonG	1	16.0	4.0	4.0	3.0	+6.8	+2.8
Isimenme Ozzy-MomoduC · transfer from Maryland	1	14.0	5.0	7.0	1.0	+10.8	+3.5
Brooklyn StewartF	1	14.0	3.0	1.0	2.0	+9.8	+3.3
Emma TolanF	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+6.4	+0.7
Sina HollerlG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.8%rank 56	43.7%rank 73	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 247	23.1%rank 302	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.2%rank 45	35.1%rank 313	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.3%rank 226	18.6%rank 37	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.1 points a game (they shot 27.5%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +34.1
Last season's net rating: +36.2
Last season's minutes returning: 54%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.0
Change since preseason: +1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.4 (rank 12)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.8 (rank 8)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 78.0 (rank 2)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +29.4 (rank 21)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90