Texas Longhorns

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Colorado · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ET

N Colorado0%100%Texas

Projected 87-50 · Game page

Makes the tournament94%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.7

Wins the national title2%Final Four 14% · projected 26-8

Net rating+35.0Rank 10 of 363 · offence 7, defence 10

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-8 (22 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 11%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 3.7
A 1 seed: 12%

Makes the field94%
Round of 3288%
Sweet 1663%
Elite Eight32%
Final Four14%
Title game6%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs Fairleigh Dickinsonrank 157	Home	100%	87-48	W 85-65	Right
Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET	vs Northern Coloradorank 164	Home	100%	87-50	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs South Dakota Staterank 44	Home	93%	82-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 94% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs South Dakota StateA win: 95% · a loss: 93%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Madison BookerF	1	32.0	24.0	7.0	5.0	+15.1	+10.2
Breya CunninghamF	1	29.0	21.0	13.0	1.0	+11.6	+7.3
Jayda ClarkG	1	26.0	7.0	6.0	2.0	+1.1	+1.6
Bryanna PrestonG	1	24.0	4.0	2.0	3.0	+10.3	+5.5
Isi EtuteF	1	24.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+1.2	+1.5
Zya VannG · transfer from Oklahoma	1	21.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	+8.6	+4.1
Addison BjornG	1	21.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	+1.2	+1.3
Lizzy SpaightG	1	12.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+1.4	+0.8
Grace PrenterG	1	6.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+7.4	+1.1
Lovisa Asbrink HoseC	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.3
Amalia HolguinG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.3%rank 254	47.2%rank 352	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.6%rank 43	24.0%rank 105	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.2%rank 47	32.9%rank 99	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.2%rank 291	18.7%rank 42	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −13.0 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +37.5
Last season's net rating: +52.7
Last season's minutes returning: 33%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.5
Change since preseason: −2.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.2 (rank 7)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 77.2 (rank 10)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 126)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.6 (rank 136)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90