Alabama Crimson Tide

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Alabama A&M · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Alabama A&M1%99%Alabama

Projected 83-49 · Game page

Makes the tournament45%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.5

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 23-11

Net rating+22.1Rank 33 of 363 · offence 32, defence 37

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-11 (19 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field45%
Round of 3226%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Queens Universityrank 318	Home	100%	100-58	W 92-56	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs LSU New Orleansrank 358	Home	100%	95-44	W 118-45	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Alabama A&Mrank 253	Home	99%	83-49	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Tulanerank 115	Away	81%	73-62	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at Memphisrank 188	Away	91%	80-60	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 45% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Alabama A&MA win: 45% · a loss: 41%+4 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at TulaneA win: 46% · a loss: 39%+7 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at MemphisA win: 45% · a loss: 42%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ace AustinG	2	25.0	14.5	5.0	4.0	+7.2	+4.3
Alayna WestG · transfer from DePaul	2	23.5	12.5	10.5	7.0	+3.1	+2.3
Tianna ChambersG	2	23.0	8.0	3.0	3.5	+4.3	+2.8
Amirah AndersonG · transfer from Boston College	2	23.0	12.0	4.0	3.5	+2.5	+2.0
Aaliyah RobersonF	2	19.5	10.5	5.5	1.0	+1.5	+1.3
Kylie TorrenceF · transfer from Cincinnati	2	18.5	14.5	6.0	0.5	+4.9	+2.4
Mykelle RichardsF	2	18.0	13.0	6.5	1.5	+1.6	+1.3
Leah BrooksG	2	16.5	4.0	2.5	2.0	+5.4	+2.3
Caitlin StaleyF · transfer from Charlotte	2	13.5	8.0	3.0	1.0	+3.5	+1.4
Naomi JonesF	2	12.0	5.5	6.5	1.0	+9.9	+2.7
Brooke CoffeyG · transfer from Lindenwood	2	7.5	2.5	0.5	0.0	+9.0	+1.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.6%rank 69	42.9%rank 29	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.5%rank 4	24.2%rank 90	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.6%rank 134	32.6%rank 78	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.7%rank 266	17.1%rank 2	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.3 points a game (they shot 27.8%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +22.9
Last season's net rating: +29.7
Last season's minutes returning: 19%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.3
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.2 (rank 32)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.1 (rank 37)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.1 (rank 92)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −25.0 (rank 256)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90