South Carolina Gamecocks

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs North Carolina · Sun 8 Nov, 5:30 PM ET

North Carolina15%85%South Carolina

Projected 81-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament>99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 1.3

Wins the national title15%Final Four 53% · projected 29-4

Net rating+45.0Rank 2 of 363 · offence 1, defence 5

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 29-4 (25 to 33 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 52%
Wins the conference tournament: 42%
Average seed if in the field: 1.3
A 1 seed: 80%

Makes the field>99%
Round of 32>99%
Sweet 1694%
Elite Eight75%
Final Four53%
Title game26%
Champion15%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Marylandrank 21	Neutral	89%	95-78	W 101-93	Right
Sun 8 Nov5:30 PM ET	vs North Carolinarank 20	Neutral	85%	81-68	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at Clemsonrank 53	Away	93%	81-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 80% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs North CarolinaA win: 81% · a loss: 73%+8 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at ClemsonA win: 81% · a loss: 73%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jordan LeeG · transfer from Texas	1	36.0	13.0	2.0	2.0	+11.2	+8.9
Joyce EdwardsF	1	30.0	23.0	8.0	4.0	+16.5	+10.4
Ashlyn WatkinsF	1	26.0	7.0	10.0	2.0	+2.0	+2.0
Tessa JohnsonG	1	26.0	15.0	6.0	5.0	+12.6	+7.1
Agot MakeerG	1	25.0	20.0	1.0	3.0	+12.0	+6.6
Jerzy RobinsonG	1	24.0	15.0	6.0	2.0	+2.1	+1.9
Chloe KittsF	1	19.0	8.0	7.0	5.0	+2.2	+1.5
Ayla McDowellG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+10.5	+0.9
Alicia TournebizeF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+10.2	+0.7
Brooke Quarles DanielsG · transfer from Michigan	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+13.2	+0.6
Kelsi AndrewsF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.6	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.6%rank 27	45.9%rank 314	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.3%rank 91	23.1%rank 298	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	36.7%rank 6	35.2%rank 318	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.0%rank 42	20.6%rank 247	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −13.5 points a game (they shot 43.3%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +46.7
Last season's net rating: +54.8
Last season's minutes returning: 49%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +13.9
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 120.0 (rank 1)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.0 (rank 5)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.5 (rank 60)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +28.8 (rank 22)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90