Vanderbilt Commodores

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Morehead St · Mon 9 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Morehead St0%100%Vanderbilt

Projected 98-45 · Game page

Makes the tournament98%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.2

Wins the national title3%Final Four 15% · projected 28-5

Net rating+36.8Rank 6 of 363 · offence 5, defence 17

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-5 (24 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 15%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 4.2
A 1 seed: 5%

Makes the field98%
Round of 3291%
Sweet 1663%
Elite Eight33%
Final Four15%
Title game7%
Champion3%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lipscombrank 248	Home	100%	105-62	W 112-53	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Queens Universityrank 318	Home	100%	100-44	W 100-42	Right
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Morehead Staterank 315	Home	100%	98-45	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Western Kentuckyrank 209	Home	100%	92-49	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 5% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mikayla BlakesG	2	25.0	25.5	7.0	4.5	+14.9	+8.0
Vernell AtamahG · transfer from N'Western St	2	25.0	6.5	2.5	3.0	+6.7	+4.2
Madison GreeneG	2	23.5	11.5	2.0	2.0	+1.8	+1.8
Aubrey GalvanG	2	23.5	14.5	3.0	8.5	+10.3	+5.5
Olivia JonesG	2	20.5	11.5	2.5	1.0	+2.0	+1.6
Jhai JohnsonF	2	18.0	3.0	4.5	1.0	+2.0	+1.4
Mia WoolfolkF · transfer from Georgia	2	17.5	15.5	4.0	0.5	+12.1	+4.7
Trinity WilsonF	2	12.0	1.5	1.0	2.0	+6.5	+1.9
Saniyah Glenn-BelloG · transfer from Harvard	2	11.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	+7.9	+2.2
Aiyana MitchellF	2	11.0	10.0	4.5	1.0	+11.9	+2.9
Monique WilliamsF	2	7.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+6.3	+1.1
Sther UbakaF	2	5.5	2.0	1.0	0.0	+2.6	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 1	43.8%rank 76	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.2%rank 79	28.7%rank 1	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.9%rank 18	35.4%rank 330	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.8%rank 315	19.1%rank 64	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.1 points a game (they shot 28.2%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.2
Last season's net rating: +39.6
Last season's minutes returning: 46%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.6
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.4 (rank 5)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.6 (rank 17)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.3 (rank 28)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.4 (rank 216)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.4	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.7	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.2	82.1	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	60
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.0	88.4	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.1	91.4	90