Notre Dame 74, Villanova 72
Final. Sunday, November 1, 2026, 9:30 AM ET at Palazzo dello Sport. Notre Dame our rank 59 · 4-0; Villanova our rank 42 · 2-1.
Who won Notre Dame vs Villanova?
Final: Notre Dame 74, Villanova 72. Before tip-off the model gave Notre Dame a 34% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 4.9 points for Villanova.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tyler Perkins: Notre Dame 46%Villanova 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Villanova 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Villanova without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Tyler Perkins | 3.8 | 54% | −12 | 74–75 |
| Devin Royal | 3.6 | 54% | −12 | 74–75 |
| Jake Fiegen | 3.1 | 56% | −10 | 74–75 |
| Elijah Crawford | 2.8 | 57% | −9 | 74–76 |
| Notre Dame | ||||
| Braeden Smith | 3.3 | 75% | +9 | 70–79 |
| Logan Duncomb | 3.1 | 74% | +8 | 71–79 |
| Brady Koehler | 2.1 | 72% | +6 | 71–78 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry | 2.0 | 71% | +5 | 71–78 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Notre Dame, then Villanova. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Notre Dame
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Villanova
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Notre Dame | Villanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.1 67th | 115.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 46th | 98.3 41st |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.9% 6th | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.2% 162nd | 46.8% 11th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 177th | 18.1% 185th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 197th | 32.0% 163rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 249th | 0.22 346th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Notre Dame 34, Villanova 36
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Players to know
Notre Dame
- Braeden SmithG8.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 8.7 ast in 26 minLast 3: 2, 17, 5 points+3.3
- Logan DuncombC10.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.3 ast in 21 minLast 3: 9, 20, 2 points+3.1
- Brady KoehlerF15.7 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.3 ast in 24 minLast 3: 16, 14, 17 points+2.1
- Braeden ShrewsberryG12.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.3 ast in 27 minLast 3: 7, 12, 17 points+2.0
Villanova
- Tyler PerkinsG7.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.0 ast in 28 minLast 2: 10, 4 points+3.8
- Devin RoyalF18.5 pts, 8.5 reb, 3.0 ast in 29 minLast 2: 15, 22 points+3.6
- Jake FiegenG12.5 pts, 1.0 reb, 0.5 ast in 28 minLast 2: 10, 15 points+3.1
- Elijah CrawfordG4.5 pts, 1.5 reb, 7.0 ast in 26 minLast 2: 5, 4 points+2.8