Who will win Rider vs Villanova?
The model gives Villanova a >99% chance to beat Rider, with a projected score of Villanova 89, Rider 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villanova | |||||
| RoyalF · 27 min | 14.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 48% | |
| FiegenG · 26 min | 14.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 46% | |
| SuigoC · 26 min | 14.3 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 15+ 44% | |
| PerkinsG · 27 min | 10.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
 Rider | |||||
| FarmerG · 24 min | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 10+ 31% | |
| BriscoF · 21 min | 6.7 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 5+ 62% | |
| BakerG · 25 min | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 45% | |
| ButlerG · 22 min | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 5+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tyler Perkins: Rider <1%Villanova >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Villanova >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Villanova without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Tyler Perkins | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 57–87 |
| Devin Royal | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 57–87 |
| Jake Fiegen | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 57–88 |
| Elijah Crawford | 2.8 | >99% | 0 | 57–88 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Rider, then Villanova. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rider 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 83-53vs William Paterson
- Nov 8L 63-75at BinghamtonDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5L 55-66vs New HampshireDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 141.5
- Nov 2L 57-95at Pitt
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.5 and allowing 72.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Villanova 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 80-59vs La SalleCovered −20.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 95-66vs Holy CrossDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 1L 72-74vs Notre Dame
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 66.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rider | Villanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.8 355th | 115.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.9 346th | 98.3 41st |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 361st | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.0% 330th | 46.8% 11th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 141st | 18.1% 185th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 94th | 32.0% 163rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.22 346th |
The widest gap: Villanova's defense (41st) against Rider's offense (355th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rider 25, Villanova 43
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 18.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Projected second half
- Rider 31, Villanova 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rider, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.5 scored, 35.8 allowed
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rider
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce BakerG | 25 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Khalil FarmerG | 24 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ty BevinsG | 24 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Mark ButlerG | 22 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 34% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Rich BriscoF | 21 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
| Richie RosaG | 16 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Horace Simmons Jr.F | 14 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| JJ WashingtonG | 14 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler PerkinsG | 27 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Devin RoyalF | 27 | 14.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jake FiegenG | 26 | 14.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Luigi SuigoC | 26 | 14.3 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 10+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Elijah CrawfordG | 25 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 7+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Adam OumiddochG | 18 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Darryl Simmons IIG | 17 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kwame Evans Jr.F | 15 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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