New Mexico at Santa Clara
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Leavey Center. New Mexico our rank 48 · 3-0; Santa Clara our rank 75 · 4-0.
Who will win New Mexico vs Santa Clara?
The model gives New Mexico a 56% chance to beat Santa Clara, with a projected score of New Mexico 81, Santa Clara 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | |||||
| HallG · 29 min | 24.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 25+ 45% | |
| TenetteG · 27 min | 14.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 15+ 46% | |
| MayesG · 25 min | 12.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| Vahlberg FasasiF · 26 min | 11.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| Santa Clara | |||||
| GavalyugovG · 29 min | 11.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| CastilloG · 24 min | 11.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| Longcor IIIG · 25 min | 10.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| TadjoF · 22 min | 9.3 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jake Hall: New Mexico 42%Santa Clara 58%
The white mark is the call with him: New Mexico 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | New Mexico without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | ||||
| Jake Hall | 3.9 | 42% | −14 | 79–81 |
| Uriah Tenette | 3.0 | 45% | −11 | 79–81 |
| Hudson Mayes | 2.8 | 46% | −10 | 80–81 |
| Chris Howell | 2.5 | 47% | −9 | 80–80 |
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Jake Ensminger | 2.4 | 64% | +8 | 82–78 |
| Sash Gavalyugov | 2.0 | 63% | +7 | 82–78 |
| Thierry Darlan | 1.5 | 61% | +5 | 82–78 |
| Fedor Zugic | 1.3 | 61% | +5 | 82–79 |
Change is in New Mexico's win chance, in points. Scores read New Mexico, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Mexico 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 94-69vs Little RockCovered −23.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 7W 94-65vs N ArizonaCovered −28.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 100-60vs Utah Tech
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 96.0 and allowing 64.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Santa Clara 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 76-71at North TexasCovered −1.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 7W 83-77vs Sacramento StDidn't cover −19.5 · Under 170.5
- Nov 4W 95-72vs MilwaukeeCovered −15.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2W 89-70vs Towson
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 85.8 and allowing 72.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Mexico | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.0 41st | 111.7 78th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.8 53rd | 101.7 77th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.4% 64th | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 137th | 48.7% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.1% 13th | 18.1% 184th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 201st | 31.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 179th | 0.24 266th |
The widest gap: New Mexico's offense (41st) against Santa Clara's defense (77th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Mexico 38, Santa Clara 37
- First-half margin
- New Mexico by 0.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.1
- Projected second half
- New Mexico 43, Santa Clara 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Mexico, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Santa Clara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.0 scored, 34.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Mexico
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake HallG | 29 | 24.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| 25+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 58% | |||||
| Uriah TenetteG | 27 | 14.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tunde Vahlberg FasasiF | 26 | 11.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Hudson MayesG | 25 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Chris HowellG | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Dax HallG | 23 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Benjamin SchuchF | 14 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Federico GraniF | 14 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake EnsmingerG | 31 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Sash GavalyugovG | 29 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Brad Longcor IIIG | 25 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| David CastilloG | 24 | 11.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Fedor ZugicG | 23 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Chris TadjoF | 22 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Elijah MahiF | 19 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Thierry DarlanG | 18 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elijah Mahi (21 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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