Utah Tech Trailblazers
Next: at Utah State · Tue 10 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 64-90 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-22
Net rating−12.5Rank 284 of 365 · offence 272, defence 306
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-22 (7 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at New Mexicorank 46 | Away | 3% | 57-81 | L 60-100 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Grace Universitynot Division I | Home | — | — | W 103-52 | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at Utah Staterank 51 | Away | 1% | 64-90 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at Utah StateA win: <1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen MackayG | 2 | 28.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| Christian GibsonG | 2 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Ethan PotterF | 2 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Aris RodriguezG | 2 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Mark Brown Jr.G · transfer from Valparaiso | 2 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.3 | −0.6 |
| Preston VandermydeG | 2 | 19.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | −4.3 | −0.8 |
| Aaron BlissNA | 2 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Boston HarkerG | 2 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Samuel AriyibiF | 2 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Dallin GrantF | 2 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Kyle LemkeC | 1 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jax ClarkF | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Petros RagkosG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.8%rank 265 | 52.4%rank 342 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.3%rank 122 | 19.0%rank 86 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.8%rank 344 | 31.0%rank 92 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.0%rank 291 | 25.7%rank 262 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −8.8 points a game (they shot 44.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.9
- Last season's net rating
- −2.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 22%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.9 (rank 272)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.4 (rank 306)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 168)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.4 (rank 45)
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 106.0 | 104.2 | 120 |
| 2 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 104.2 | 107.1 | 155 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.5 | 108.7 | 173 |
| 4 | Montana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 103.2 | 108.1 | 183 |
| 5 | Portland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.3 | 106.1 | 196 |
| 6 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 101.8 | 108.3 | 208 |
| 7 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 101.2 | 108.6 | 224 |
| 8 | Northern Arizona | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 101.8 | 112.4 | 260 |
| 9 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 100.7 | 111.3 | 263 |
| 10 | Weber State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 99.3 | 111.3 | 281 |
| 11 | Utah Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 98.9 | 111.4 | 284 |