Idaho Vandals

Men's · Big Sky Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Colorado St · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Idaho7%93%Colorado St

Projected 66-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16

Net rating−6.5Rank 208 of 365 · offence 202, defence 217

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-16 (12 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 13.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs George Foxnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 97-56
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	at Colorado Staterank 69	Away	7%	66-84	—
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	vs Lincoln (CA)not Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Colorado StateA win: 7% · a loss: 8%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kase WynottG · transfer from Washington St	1	25.0	20.0	6.0	3.0	−1.5	+0.3
Miles KlapperG	1	23.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	−0.2	+0.8
Hudson WardF · transfer from W Michigan	1	21.0	8.0	12.0	3.0	−2.2	−0.1
Kristian GonzalezG	1	19.0	14.0	5.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.3
Ryan LaffertyG · transfer from St Thomas	1	19.0	2.0	5.0	2.0	−2.0	0.0
Seth JobaF	1	18.0	8.0	11.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.5
Diego Trejo-DelgadoF	1	17.0	11.0	5.0	3.0	−1.5	+0.2
Brady KennisonG	1	13.0	14.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.2
Mo DiaoF	1	11.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
TJ WalG	1	8.0	7.0	0.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Nolan Newman-GomezF	1	7.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Ryan CarneyG	1	7.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Will JensonF	1	6.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Zuby TomsG	1	6.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.5
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 14%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.8 (rank 202)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.3 (rank 217)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 132)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	0-1	0-0	+1.8	106.0	104.2	120
2	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.9	104.2	107.1	155
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	−4.2	104.5	108.7	173
4	Montana	1-1	0-0	−4.9	103.2	108.1	183
5	Portland State	1-0	0-0	−5.8	100.3	106.1	196
6	Idaho	1-0	0-0	−6.5	101.8	108.3	208
7	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−7.5	101.2	108.6	224
8	Northern Arizona	0-1	0-0	−10.6	101.8	112.4	260
9	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−10.6	100.7	111.3	263
10	Weber State	0-1	0-0	−12.0	99.3	111.3	281
11	Utah Tech	1-1	0-0	−12.5	98.9	111.4	284