Idaho State Bengals

Men's · Big Sky Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Wyoming · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Idaho St12%88%Wyoming

Projected 68-82 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20

Net rating−10.7Rank 263 of 365 · offence 235, defence 304

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-20 (8 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-12
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Utah Staterank 51	Away	5%	59-79	L 58-94	Right
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Wyomingrank 119	Away	12%	68-82	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	at Air Forcerank 299	Away	44%	74-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at WyomingA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at Air ForceA win: 2% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
MaCarhy MorrisG	1	33.0	15.0	1.0	5.0	−2.3	−0.2
Kenyon DeMuynckF	1	27.0	14.0	3.0	1.0	−2.2	−0.1
Nathan AmoranG	1	22.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Ty VirgilG	1	21.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Malachi JohnsonF	1	19.0	4.0	5.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Eli GarnerG	1	17.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Ike PalmerF	1	14.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Eyal HarelG · transfer from Pacific	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.1
Quin PattersonF	1	11.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−3.8	−0.3
Malik JohnsonF	1	7.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Joven DulayG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
McKae AmundsenG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Aden GoffeG	1	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Landen BirleyG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−3.3	−0.1
Bryce LowenbachF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.1%rank 307	51.5%rank 301	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 151	19.1%rank 60	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.2%rank 254	34.1%rank 345	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.0%rank 91	25.1%rank 135	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.5 points a game (they shot 29.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −8.3
Last season's net rating: −6.5
Last season's minutes returning: 4%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.7 (rank 235)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 111.4 (rank 304)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.0 (rank 223)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +15.1 (rank 49)

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	0-1	0-0	+1.8	106.0	104.2	120
2	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.9	104.3	107.2	155
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	−4.2	104.5	108.8	175
4	Montana	1-1	0-0	−5.0	103.2	108.2	184
5	Portland State	1-0	0-0	−5.8	100.4	106.2	197
6	Idaho	1-0	0-0	−6.5	101.9	108.4	210
7	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−7.5	101.2	108.7	225
8	Northern Arizona	0-1	0-0	−10.6	101.9	112.4	260
9	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−10.7	100.7	111.4	263
10	Weber State	0-1	0-0	−12.0	99.3	111.3	282
11	Utah Tech	1-1	0-0	−12.5	99.0	111.5	285