Air Force Falcons

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Calumet St. Joseph · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-24

Net rating−13.6Rank 298 of 365 · offence 281, defence 316

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 9-24 (5 to 14 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-15
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Wright Staterank 124	Away	23%	63-72	L 71-102	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Calumet St. Josephnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Idaho Staterank 263	Home	56%	76-74	—
Wed 11 Nov3 PM ET	vs Loyola Chicagorank 142	Home	33%	71-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Idaho StateA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Loyola ChicagoA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kam SandersG	1	33.0	17.0	5.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.3
Grant BestG	1	31.0	17.0	2.0	3.0	−1.5	+0.3
Caleb WalkerF	1	28.0	11.0	8.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.4
A.J. PattersonG	1	23.0	12.0	2.0	2.0	−4.7	−1.1
Ethan GreenbergG	1	20.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.5
Lucas HobinF	1	17.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	−3.5	−0.5
Wesley CelichowskiC	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−4.3	−0.5
Eli RobinsonF	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Brendan MartinF	1	8.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−3.6	−0.2
Josh GateteF	1	6.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−4.4	−0.2
Justin HindsG	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−4.8	−0.3
Riley DeringF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Kolby GillesF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−5.0	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 318	52.5%rank 344	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 64	19.1%rank 72	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.1%rank 5	33.6%rank 336	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.6%rank 63	24.6%rank 107	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.7 points a game (they shot 43.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −9.9
Last season's net rating: −21.4
Last season's minutes returning: 98%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −3.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.5 (rank 281)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.2 (rank 316)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 185)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.4 (rank 111)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.6	97.2	46
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.0	112.4	98.3	57
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+10.9	111.2	100.2	70
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.7	109.7	104.0	99
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.5	104.2	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.3	105.9	107.3	141
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.2	102.1	104.2	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.3	100.1	106.4	202
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.6	110.4	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.6	98.5	112.2	298