UC Davis Aggies
Next: vs Menlo · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19
Net rating−6.3Rank 202 of 365 · offence 249, defence 164
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-19 (10 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs North Alabamarank 278 | Home | 86% | 74-60 | L 75-79 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET | vs Menlonot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov2 PM ET | vs Incarnate Wordrank 300 | Home | 81% | 78-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Incarnate WordA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah ChappellF | 1 | 32.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Connor SevillaG | 1 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Brayden FagbemiG | 1 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 |
| Jalen StokesG | 1 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Veniamin AbosiF · transfer from San Francisco | 1 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Clarence MassambaG · transfer from Tennessee | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| Omer SuljanovicF | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Chase RawlinsG | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Ylan Esso-EssisG | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Aleks SzymczykC · transfer from CSU Northridge | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.1%rank 311 | 52.4%rank 340 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.2%rank 309 | 19.2%rank 54 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.2%rank 328 | 31.0%rank 91 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.5%rank 64 | 28.2%rank 349 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.8 points a game (they shot 38.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.9
- Last season's net rating
- −1.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 53%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.1
- Change since preseason
- −3.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.1 (rank 249)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.4 (rank 164)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.6 (rank 45)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −11.5 (rank 220)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 1-0 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 112.6 | 97.2 | 46 |
| 2 | Nevada | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.0 | 112.4 | 98.4 | 57 |
| 3 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.9 | 111.2 | 100.2 | 70 |
| 4 | UNLV | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 109.7 | 104.1 | 100 |
| 5 | Wyoming | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 106.5 | 104.2 | 119 |
| 6 | San José State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.4 | 106.0 | 107.3 | 141 |
| 7 | Hawai'i | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 102.1 | 104.3 | 148 |
| 8 | UC Davis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 202 |
| 9 | UTEP | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 99.7 | 110.4 | 267 |
| 10 | Air Force | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.6 | 98.6 | 112.2 | 298 |