Incarnate Word Cardinals
Next: vs Chicago St · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 79-66 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-24
Net rating−13.8Rank 300 of 365 · offence 300, defence 293
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-24 (6 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Oklahoma Staterank 45 | Away | 2% | 58-83 | L 60-91 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Chicago Staterank 364 | Home | 88% | 79-66 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov7 PM ET | at UTEPrank 267 | Away | 29% | 69-76 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov2 PM ET | at UC Davisrank 202 | Away | 19% | 68-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Chicago StateA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at UTEPA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at UC DavisA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCreeshG · transfer from Bucknell | 1 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −1.1 |
| Mekhi ConnerG · transfer from Sacred Heart | 1 | 30.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | −3.8 | −0.9 |
| Godswill ErherieneF · transfer from Seton Hall | 1 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Ismail HabibG · transfer from S Indiana | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.4 | −0.6 |
| Max Garcia-PlataG | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| D'Arrae GoodwinF · transfer from San Diego | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Christophe PareC | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Krisnan-Cole IoaneF | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| DJ CasonG | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| David EmetuF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.1%rank 86 | 50.0%rank 117 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.8%rank 343 | 17.9%rank 309 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.6%rank 351 | 32.4%rank 273 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.5%rank 258 | 26.1%rank 284 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.9 points a game (they shot 37.9%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.3
- Last season's net rating
- −8.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 97.2 (rank 300)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.0 (rank 293)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.5 (rank 281)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.4 (rank 44)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McNeese | 1-1 | 0-0 | +5.7 | 111.0 | 105.2 | 99 |
| 2 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.3 | 105.5 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 101.8 | 107.4 | 193 |
| 4 | East Texas A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 99.4 | 105.8 | 205 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 232 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 100.3 | 108.6 | 237 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.0 | 107.5 | 239 |
| 8 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 97.6 | 108.9 | 276 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.4 | 109.6 | 294 |
| 10 | Incarnate Word | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.2 | 111.0 | 300 |
| 11 | Houston Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 97.1 | 111.1 | 304 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 97.6 | 112.4 | 312 |