Oklahoma State Cowboys

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Queens · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Queens5%95%Oklahoma St

Projected 94-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament40%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+15.4Rank 45 of 365 · offence 59, defence 36

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field40%
Round of 3224%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Incarnate Wordrank 300	Home	98%	83-58	W 91-60	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Queens Universityrank 152	Home	95%	94-74	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	at Texas A&Mrank 37	Away	31%	75-81	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 40% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Queens UniversityA win: 40% · a loss: 38%+3 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Texas A&MA win: 47% · a loss: 37%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kashie NattG · transfer from Sam Houston	1	24.0	7.0	3.0	2.0	+5.8	+3.5
Anthony FelesiG	1	24.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.1
Jacob WalkerG · transfer from Sam Houston	1	22.0	8.0	3.0	8.0	+2.7	+1.9
Andrija GrbovicF · transfer from Arizona St	1	19.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.6
Parker RobinsonG	1	18.0	11.0	1.0	2.0	+0.7	+0.9
Jordan BurksF · transfer from UCF	1	17.0	11.0	3.0	0.0	+6.2	+2.6
Ryan CrottyG	1	15.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	+1.4	+1.0
Julius HalaifonuaC · transfer from Georgetown	1	15.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+5.7	+2.1
Luka BogavacG · transfer from North Carolina	1	15.0	14.0	4.0	1.0	+4.9	+1.9
Latrell AllmondF	1	13.0	9.0	4.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.7
Benjamin AhmedF	1	12.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+3.2	+1.2
Jalen MontonatiG	1	6.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.0%rank 246	51.1%rank 279	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 58	19.8%rank 23	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.4%rank 90	29.6%rank 17	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.1%rank 78	24.5%rank 108	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.6 points a game (they shot 36.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.9
Last season's net rating: +10.7
Last season's minutes returning: 32%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.0
Change since preseason: +1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.5 (rank 59)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.1 (rank 36)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.8 (rank 6)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −13.8 (rank 237)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.1	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.9	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	12
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.4	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.3	114.3	98.0	41
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.7	114.3	99.6	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.7	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.2	108.0	100.8	90
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	114