Arizona State Sun Devils

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Colorado · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

N Colorado9%91%Arizona St

Projected 85-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+12.5Rank 64 of 365 · offence 58, defence 73

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (14 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field19%
Round of 329%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs East Tennessee Staterank 186	Home	93%	77-59	W 75-65	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Northern Coloradorank 156	Home	91%	85-69	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Hofstrarank 154	Home	91%	80-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 19% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Northern ColoradoA win: 19% · a loss: 17%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs HofstraA win: 19% · a loss: 18%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Paulius MurauskasF · transfer from Saint Mary's	1	40.0	21.0	9.0	3.0	+6.1	+5.8
Joel FoxwellG · transfer from Portland	1	40.0	15.0	3.0	5.0	+1.1	+2.3
Dillan ShawG · transfer from Saint Mary's	1	31.0	13.0	6.0	2.0	+3.6	+3.1
JRob CroyG	1	25.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.6
Filip MalesevicC	1	25.0	12.0	6.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.7
Emmanuel InnocentiG · transfer from Gonzaga	1	17.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	+4.6	+2.0
Ben DeftyC · transfer from Boston U	1	13.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+3.1	+1.2
Bryce FordG	1	9.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.6%rank 263	51.1%rank 291	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 225	18.5%rank 129	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.8%rank 66	33.1%rank 317	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.3%rank 55	24.3%rank 81	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.8 points a game (they shot 41.2%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.9
Last season's net rating: +11.2
Last season's minutes returning: 9%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.8
Change since preseason: −0.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.5 (rank 58)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.0 (rank 73)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 145)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.1 (rank 160)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.7	120.0	89.2	3
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.7	119.5	88.8	3
3	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.9	117.9	90.0	7
4	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	119.8	92.6	10
5	Cincinnati	2-0	0-0	+23.2	114.0	90.8	15
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.3	94.6	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.0	99.2	25
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.4	112.7	95.3	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	109.6	92.7	37
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.7	98.4	49
11	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.2	99.4	52
12	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+14.5	112.5	98.0	54
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.5	112.5	100.0	64
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.8	114.2	103.4	73
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.9	100.6	90
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.4	104.8	101.5	114