BYU Cougars

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Omaha · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Omaha1%99%BYU

Projected 94-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament76%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.6

Wins the national title1%Final Four 4% · projected 22-10

Net rating+20.8Rank 24 of 365 · offence 5, defence 60

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (17 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 5.6
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field76%
Round of 3258%
Sweet 1627%
Elite Eight11%
Final Four4%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Ohio Staterank 34	Neutral	50%	71-71	W 94-83	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Omaharank 254	Home	99%	94-65	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Queens Universityrank 152	Home	98%	98-74	—
Thu 12 Nov9 PM ET	vs Montana Staterank 120	Home	95%	89-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 76% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs OmahaA win: 76% · a loss: 76%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Queens UniversityA win: 76% · a loss: 73%+4 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Montana StateA win: 76% · a loss: 68%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Robert Wright IIIG	1	34.0	35.0	1.0	5.0	+6.5	+5.3
Collin ChandlerG · transfer from Kentucky	1	32.0	15.0	4.0	1.0	+5.1	+4.1
Tyler BetseyF · transfer from Syracuse	1	31.0	15.0	7.0	0.0	+2.4	+2.5
Bruce Branch IIIF	1	27.0	10.0	3.0	3.0	+0.4	+1.2
Jaxon KohlerF · transfer from Michigan St	1	25.0	11.0	7.0	1.0	+8.8	+4.9
Jake WahlinF · transfer from Clemson	1	16.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+4.1	+1.8
Khadim MboupF	1	14.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+4.3	+1.6
Brooks BahrF	1	14.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	+0.7	+0.7
Nate PickensG	1	7.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.6%rank 18	51.5%rank 299	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.5%rank 23	18.2%rank 264	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.5%rank 225	31.7%rank 154	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.1%rank 49	26.2%rank 288	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.1 points a game (they shot 32.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.4
Last season's net rating: +24.0
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +9.8
Change since preseason: +1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 120.2 (rank 5)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.3 (rank 60)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +17.8 (rank 33)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	3
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.9	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.3	114.3	98.0	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.7	114.3	99.6	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.2	108.0	100.8	91
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	114