Queens University Royals
Next: at Oklahoma St · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 74-94 · Game page
Makes the tournament27%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-14
Net rating−2.6Rank 152 of 365 · offence 78, defence 332
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-14 (15 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 38%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 27%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field27%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Winthroprank 242 | Neutral | 51% | 73-73 | W 103-98 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Loyola Marymountrank 180 | Away | 32% | 76-81 | W 96-95 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET | at Oklahoma Staterank 45 | Away | 5% | 74-94 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at BYUrank 24 | Away | 2% | 74-98 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Oklahoma StateA win: 27% · a loss: 27%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at BYUA win: 29% · a loss: 27%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasir MannG | 2 | 34.5 | 23.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +0.5 | +1.6 |
| Jordan WatfordG | 2 | 32.5 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.9 | +1.8 |
| Isaiah HenryG | 2 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Avantae ParkerF | 2 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Nicholas McLeanF | 2 | 20.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Caleb JonesG | 2 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Rickey BallardF · transfer from Grambling | 2 | 18.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Dante KearseG · transfer from The Citadel | 2 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Atakan BicerF | 2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Corbin PackG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 54.9%rank 1 | 53.3%rank 359 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 16.3%rank 1 | 18.8%rank 107 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.6%rank 222 | 33.1%rank 310 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.9%rank 58 | 23.1%rank 30 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 2.0 won, 0.8 expected (+1.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −12.5 points a game (they shot 45.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 2-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.5
- Last season's net rating
- −2.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 40%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- +3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 110.5 (rank 78)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 113.1 (rank 332)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.1 (rank 21)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.7 (rank 179)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.5 | 113.1 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.3 | 108.3 | 156 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.2 | 105.4 | 159 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 99.0 | 109.7 | 264 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.2 | 110.2 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 99.6 | 110.8 | 276 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 101.9 | 116.0 | 306 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 102.4 | 117.0 | 310 |