Jacksonville Dolphins
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19
Net rating−10.7Rank 264 of 365 · offence 269, defence 260
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-19 (9 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Trinity College of Jacksonvillenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 105-61 | |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | at Floridarank 2 | Away | 0% | 54-94 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Kansas Cityrank 303 | Home | 71% | 75-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Kansas CityA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsG · transfer from Lafayette | 1 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Hayden WoodG | 1 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Evan RobertsG | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jamie Phillips Jr.G · transfer from Stetson | 1 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| James MorrowF · transfer from SC State | 1 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.7 | −0.5 |
| Nehemiah TurnerF · transfer from Minnesota | 1 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Rex StirlingF · transfer from Wofford | 1 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Jaden NewellF · transfer from Georgia | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.5 |
| Evan SterckG | 1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Lyndell Buckingham Jr.G | 1 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Sam MbingazoC | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| Maddox PalmerG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| LJ KatzG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
| Roman LouxG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 156 | 18.6%rank 134 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 128 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 131 | 25.2%rank 153 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.7
- Last season's net rating
- −12.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −6.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 99.0 (rank 269)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.6 (rank 260)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.9 (rank 335)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.4 | 113.0 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 156 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 102.2 | 105.3 | 159 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 99.0 | 109.6 | 264 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.2 | 110.2 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 99.5 | 110.8 | 275 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 101.8 | 115.9 | 304 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 100.2 | 115.5 | 317 |