Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Next: vs New College · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament26%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−3.0Rank 156 of 365 · offence 129, defence 212
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 35%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 25%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field26%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at GeorgiaA win: 27% · a loss: 26%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase KoniecznyF | 1 | 42.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.4 | +1.2 |
| Turk Brown IIIG | 1 | 37.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | −0.3 | +1.2 |
| Justin HouserC · transfer from Penn State | 1 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 |
| Bryson LucasF | 1 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 |
| Darren WilliamsG | 1 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| BB WashingtonG | 1 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Matt McCarthyG | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| CJ OutlawF · transfer from UMass | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Gabe TannerF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| George Washington IIIG | 1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.0%rank 41 | 51.3%rank 294 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.8%rank 44 | 17.8%rank 320 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.0%rank 55 | 29.3%rank 9 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.2%rank 20 | 27.6%rank 336 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −9.5 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.8
- Last season's net rating
- −6.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 19%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.4
- Change since preseason
- +5.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.2 (rank 129)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.2 (rank 212)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 185)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +10.7 (rank 72)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.4 | 113.0 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 156 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.1 | 105.3 | 159 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.9 | 109.6 | 264 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.1 | 110.1 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 99.5 | 110.8 | 275 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 101.8 | 115.9 | 305 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 100.2 | 115.5 | 317 |