Georgia Bulldogs

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Presbyterian · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Presbyterian3%97%Georgia

Projected 88-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament32%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.6

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+16.8Rank 39 of 365 · offence 50, defence 34

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (14 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.6
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field32%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 167%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs North Carolina Centralrank 350	Home	100%	89-51	W 78-62	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Presbyterianrank 204	Home	97%	88-65	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Florida Gulf Coastrank 156	Home	96%	88-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 32% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs PresbyterianA win: 32% · a loss: 30%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Florida Gulf CoastA win: 32% · a loss: 29%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Blue CainG	1	31.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+5.4	+4.2
Marcus MillenderG	1	30.0	12.0	3.0	4.0	+4.2	+3.4
Kanon CatchingsF	1	28.0	16.0	3.0	1.0	+4.2	+3.2
James ScottF · transfer from Ole Miss	1	24.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+3.9	+2.6
Freddie Dilione VG · transfer from Penn State	1	24.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	+3.2	+2.3
Brady DunlapF · transfer from Saint Louis	1	21.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	+3.2	+2.0
Donovan Williams Jr.G	1	18.0	7.0	2.0	2.0	−0.3	+0.6
Andrew OsasuyiF · transfer from St Bonaventure	1	11.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.0
Mading KuanyF	1	8.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+0.3
David Ugonna IkeF	1	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.4%rank 298	50.1%rank 124	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 134	19.3%rank 47	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.8%rank 289	32.2%rank 261	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.1%rank 81	23.9%rank 75	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −6.5 points a game (they shot 46.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.7
Last season's net rating: +20.5
Last season's minutes returning: 44%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.3
Change since preseason: −2.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.1 (rank 50)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.3 (rank 34)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 12)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −20.1 (rank 277)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+24.8	115.8	91.0	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	92