Alabama Crimson Tide

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Arkansas St · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Arkansas St1%99%Alabama

Projected 94-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament85%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.1

Wins the national title2%Final Four 10% · projected 22-10

Net rating+24.4Rank 13 of 365 · offence 14, defence 16

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 4.1
A 1 seed: 10%

Makes the field85%
Round of 3275%
Sweet 1645%
Elite Eight22%
Final Four10%
Title game4%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Sam Houstonrank 147	Home	98%	93-69	W 96-74	Right
Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Arkansas Staterank 171	Home	99%	94-65	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Oaklandrank 157	Home	99%	95-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 85% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Arkansas StateA win: 85% · a loss: 83%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 85% · a loss: 86%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Keitenn BristowF	1	22.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+5.5	+3.1
Drew FielderF · transfer from Boise St	1	21.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+8.8	+4.2
Qayden SamuelsG	1	21.0	9.0	2.0	5.0	+1.9	+1.6
Amari AllenG	1	20.0	12.0	4.0	4.0	+8.6	+4.0
London JemisonF	1	20.0	15.0	3.0	1.0	+7.0	+3.4
Tarris BouieF	1	19.0	13.0	7.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.4
Brandon GarrisonF · transfer from Kentucky	1	17.0	9.0	4.0	0.0	+6.6	+2.8
Jamarion Davis-FlemingF · transfer from Mississippi St	1	17.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	+4.4	+2.0
Jaxon RichardsonF	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	+2.0	+1.1
Cole CloerG	1	14.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+2.0	+1.1
Anderson DiazG	1	11.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+2.1	+0.9
TJ St. LouisC	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.4	+0.2
Collins OnyejiakaC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 226	51.2%rank 287	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 58	19.9%rank 21	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.7%rank 294	32.8%rank 305	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.3%rank 319	23.8%rank 66	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −13.0 points a game (they shot 45.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.3
Last season's net rating: +27.4
Last season's minutes returning: 34%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.0
Change since preseason: +1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 118.3 (rank 14)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.0 (rank 16)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 4)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.9 (rank 124)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94