Oklahoma Sooners

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Miss Valley St · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Miss Valley St0%100%Oklahoma

Projected 94-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament29%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.8

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-15

Net rating+15.2Rank 49 of 365 · offence 43, defence 55

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-15 (13 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.8
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field29%
Round of 3217%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs East Texas A&Mrank 205	Home	99%	84-54	L 64-68	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Mississippi Valley Staterank 365	Home	100%	94-54	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	vs North Alabamarank 278	Home	98%	86-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 29% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs North AlabamaA win: 29% · a loss: 30%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Derrion ReidF	1	33.0	14.0	10.0	0.0	+3.1	+3.0
Khani RoothsF · transfer from Louisville	1	29.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	+4.2	+3.2
B.J. EdwardsG · transfer from SMU	1	29.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+4.5	+3.4
Pop IsaacsG · transfer from Texas A&M	1	29.0	15.0	1.0	3.0	+2.5	+2.4
Dayton ForsytheG	1	26.0	7.0	0.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.4
Tyler HendricksG · transfer from Utah Valley	1	18.0	5.0	0.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.3
Duke BrennanF · transfer from Villanova	1	17.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	+6.0	+2.4
Kai RogersF	1	14.0	2.0	6.0	1.0	+1.4	+0.9
Gage MayfieldF	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1
Quincy WadleyG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.8%rank 327	51.7%rank 316	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.6%rank 336	18.8%rank 107	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.8%rank 62	33.8%rank 341	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.8%rank 94	23.7%rank 61	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 1.0 expected (−1.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −6.8 points a game (they shot 40.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +21.0
Last season's net rating: +17.2
Last season's minutes returning: 38%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +10.2
Change since preseason: −5.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.0 (rank 43)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.7 (rank 55)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 248)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.4 (rank 171)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.0	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	93