LSU Tigers

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Texas Southern · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Texas Southern1%99%LSU

Projected 90-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 17-16

Net rating+13.1Rank 59 of 365 · offence 71, defence 49

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field17%
Round of 329%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs LSU New Orleansrank 311	Home	95%	86-65	W 100-57	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Texas Southernrank 309	Home	99%	90-64	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	vs Louisiana Techrank 175	Home	93%	83-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Texas SouthernA win: 17% · a loss: 17%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Louisiana TechA win: 17% · a loss: 17%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Skyy ClarkG · transfer from UCLA	1	30.0	0.0	4.0	3.0	+3.8	+3.1
Donovan DentG · transfer from UCLA	1	30.0	19.0	4.0	10.0	+5.5	+4.1
Michael RuzicC	1	25.0	17.0	6.0	2.0	−0.4	+0.7
Divine UgochukwuG · transfer from Michigan St	1	23.0	8.0	9.0	3.0	+3.8	+2.4
Saliou NiangF	1	23.0	14.0	14.0	5.0	−0.3	+0.7
Mo DioubateF · transfer from Kentucky	1	20.0	10.0	2.0	0.0	+6.2	+3.0
Abdi Bashir Jr.G · transfer from Kansas St	1	20.0	11.0	2.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.7
Brice DessertC	1	18.0	13.0	7.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.6
Gilad LevyC	1	5.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Jordan BenderF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1
Luke StansburyG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1
Bradley FifeG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 126	47.4%rank 5	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 130	18.3%rank 244	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.6%rank 80	31.6%rank 150	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.5%rank 312	27.9%rank 344	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +16.1 points a game (they shot 13.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +9.3
Last season's net rating: +13.7
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.5
Change since preseason: +3.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.3 (rank 71)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.2 (rank 49)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.9 (rank 112)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.8 (rank 246)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.0	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	93