Vanderbilt Commodores

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Wake Forest · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Wake Forest7%93%Vanderbilt

Projected 84-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament85%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.3

Wins the national title2%Final Four 8% · projected 25-9

Net rating+24.1Rank 14 of 365 · offence 22, defence 14

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-9 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 5.3
A 1 seed: 4%

Makes the field85%
Round of 3270%
Sweet 1639%
Elite Eight18%
Final Four8%
Title game4%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bellarminerank 317	Home	99%	86-57	W 93-47	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Wake Forestrank 90	Home	93%	84-67	Live
Tue 10 Nov7:15 PM ET	vs Memphisrank 85	Home	92%	85-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 85% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Wake ForestA win: 85% · a loss: 85%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs MemphisA win: 86% · a loss: 82%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tyler TannerG	1	28.0	20.0	2.0	6.0	+10.0	+6.0
Ace GlassG · transfer from Washington St	1	24.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+4.0	+2.6
Sebastian Williams-AdamsF · transfer from Auburn	1	23.0	9.0	9.0	1.0	+4.4	+2.7
Chandler BingF	1	22.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	+3.8	+2.3
Berke BuyuktuncelC · transfer from Nebraska	1	21.0	13.0	2.0	1.0	+6.9	+3.4
Ant Brown Jr.G	1	18.0	7.0	1.0	3.0	+1.0	+1.0
Bangot DakF · transfer from Colorado	1	15.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	+6.5	+2.3
T.O. BarrettF · transfer from Missouri	1	13.0	4.0	5.0	4.0	+5.0	+1.6
Jayden LeverettC	1	10.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+4.6	+1.2
Jackson SheffieldF	1	9.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.5
Ethan MgbakoF	1	7.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+1.3	+0.4
Mavrick HawkinsG	1	5.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.3
Baylor AllenG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.2
Chase ByingtonG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.1%rank 39	50.0%rank 116	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.2%rank 311	20.5%rank 9	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.8%rank 62	30.2%rank 37	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.4%rank 68	24.6%rank 111	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +20.4
Last season's net rating: +27.4
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +9.0
Change since preseason: +3.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.0 (rank 22)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.0 (rank 14)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 125)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.3 (rank 251)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94