Mississippi State Bulldogs

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N'Western St · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

N'Western St8%92%Mississippi St

Projected 85-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 12-19

Net rating+7.0Rank 92 of 365 · offence 65, defence 130

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-19 (8 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Tennessee Techrank 280	Home	97%	81-57	W 106-88	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Northwestern Staterank 239	Home	92%	85-68	Live
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Jackson Staterank 327	Home	98%	89-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Northwestern StateA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Jackson StateA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tajuan SimpkinsG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	32.0	15.0	5.0	5.0	+2.7	+2.8
Josh HubbardG	1	31.0	25.0	0.0	9.0	+3.2	+3.0
Kimani HamiltonF · transfer from UNLV	1	30.0	5.0	6.0	1.0	+1.4	+1.9
King GraceG	1	23.0	23.0	8.0	4.0	+0.6	+1.1
Thomas BassongF · transfer from Florida St	1	23.0	14.0	6.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.1
RJ JohnsonG · transfer from Kennesaw St	1	21.0	12.0	1.0	3.0	+1.8	+1.5
Jalyn CollingwoodG	1	14.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.2
Kendyl SandersF · transfer from Utah	1	10.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.3
Tristan ReedC	1	8.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.1
ND OkaforC · transfer from Washington St	1	6.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.5
Willie Burnett IIIG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.5%rank 20	52.2%rank 332	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 304	17.5%rank 334	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.8%rank 68	31.6%rank 144	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.1%rank 44	25.3%rank 241	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.0 points a game (they shot 28.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.2
Last season's net rating: +6.3
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.3
Change since preseason: −3.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.7 (rank 65)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.7 (rank 130)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 25)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −11.8 (rank 222)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+24.8	115.8	91.0	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	92