Ole Miss Rebels

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs C Arkansas · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

C Arkansas3%97%Ole Miss

Projected 86-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament59%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 2% · projected 21-11

Net rating+19.7Rank 32 of 365 · offence 35, defence 21

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 6.7
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field59%
Round of 3241%
Sweet 1617%
Elite Eight7%
Final Four2%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Alcorn Staterank 359	Home	100%	84-51	W 99-58	Right
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Central Arkansasrank 150	Home	97%	86-64	—
Tue 10 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs SE Louisianarank 295	Home	99%	88-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 59% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Central ArkansasA win: 60% · a loss: 50%+9 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs SE LouisianaA win: 59% · a loss: 54%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ilias KamardineG	1	28.0	3.0	1.0	5.0	+4.6	+3.4
Adam ClarkG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	26.0	17.0	2.0	7.0	+5.8	+3.6
Patton PinkinsG	1	24.0	16.0	3.0	2.0	+4.3	+2.8
Santiago TrouetF · transfer from Arizona St	1	22.0	15.0	7.0	5.0	+4.8	+2.7
Corey StephensonG · transfer from FIU	1	18.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+4.4	+2.1
Ben HenshallG	1	17.0	5.0	1.0	2.0	+1.3	+1.0
Zach DayG	1	12.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+2.4	+1.0
Roman SiulepaF · transfer from Pitt	1	12.0	9.0	3.0	0.0	+5.2	+1.6
Dasear HaskinsF · transfer from Saint Joseph's	1	10.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+4.8	+1.2
Christian BrownF · transfer from James Madison	1	10.0	12.0	4.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.8
Yohance ConnorG	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+1.6	+0.5
Jaron SaulsberryG	1	7.0	5.0	2.0	3.0	+1.6	+0.5
Stefan CicicC · transfer from Pepperdine	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.3
Daniel PattonF	1	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.6%rank 63	50.5%rank 241	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 127	20.8%rank 1	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.5%rank 81	32.4%rank 276	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.7%rank 58	24.8%rank 127	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.8 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +17.0
Last season's net rating: +11.9
Last season's minutes returning: 30%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.6
Change since preseason: +2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.5 (rank 35)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.9 (rank 21)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 155)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −22.5 (rank 284)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94