Tennessee Volunteers

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Radford · Mon 9 Nov, 7 PM ET

Radford0%100%Tennessee

Projected 91-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament96%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.3

Wins the national title5%Final Four 19% · projected 25-7

Net rating+27.8Rank 8 of 365 · offence 11, defence 9

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-7 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 20%
Wins the conference tournament: 17%
Average seed if in the field: 3.3
A 1 seed: 22%

Makes the field96%
Round of 3289%
Sweet 1661%
Elite Eight36%
Final Four19%
Title game10%
Champion5%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Woffordrank 214	Home	99%	91-59	W 90-59	Right
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Radfordrank 225	Home	100%	91-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 96% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs RadfordA win: 96% · a loss: 97%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
DeWayne Brown IIF	1	31.0	17.0	17.0	3.0	+6.1	+4.5
Juke HarrisG · transfer from Wake Forest	1	26.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	+7.5	+4.4
Miles RubinC · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	23.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	+4.6	+2.7
Tyler LundbladeG · transfer from Belmont	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+4.7	+2.6
Terrence Hill Jr.G · transfer from VCU	1	22.0	17.0	2.0	3.0	+7.4	+3.7
Dai Dai AmesG · transfer from California	1	20.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+5.1	+2.5
Jalen HaralsonG · transfer from Notre Dame	1	18.0	6.0	6.0	2.0	+6.3	+2.6
Braedan LueF · transfer from Kennesaw St	1	14.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+1.4
Troy HendersonG	1	12.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	+5.2	+1.5
Marquis ClarkG	1	4.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.3
Christian FerminF · transfer from VCU	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+0.3
Manny GreenG	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	+1.8	+0.2
Chris Washington Jr.F	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.7%rank 107	48.4%rank 40	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 102	17.8%rank 305	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.5%rank 214	32.0%rank 250	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 268	25.9%rank 246	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.8 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +28.1
Last season's net rating: +26.8
Last season's minutes returning: 9%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +10.8
Change since preseason: −0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 119.0 (rank 11)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.2 (rank 9)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.5 (rank 261)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.8 (rank 182)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.1	88.3	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.8	119.0	91.2	8
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+25.0	115.7	90.8	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.2	93.8	13
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.7	95.9	19
6	Texas	1-0	0-0	+21.8	119.5	97.7	20
7	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	24
8	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.6	116.3	95.7	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.2	118.0	97.8	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	113.8	94.1	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+17.0	112.2	95.2	36
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	113.0	96.1	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.4	113.9	98.5	48
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.2	98.0	60
15	Mississippi State	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.9	101.4	66
16	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.1	100.6	81