South Carolina Gamecocks

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs SE Missouri · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

SE Missouri7%93%South Carolina

Projected 82-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 15-17

Net rating+9.5Rank 81 of 365 · offence 82, defence 84

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-17 (11 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Stetsonrank 306	Home	91%	84-67	W 81-55	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Southeast Missouri Staterank 229	Home	93%	82-65	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Saint Peter'srank 325	Home	97%	80-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Southeast Missouri StateA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Saint Peter'sA win: 9% · a loss: 9%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kory MincyG · transfer from George Mason	1	33.0	5.0	3.0	5.0	+2.8	+2.8
Jakub NecasF · transfer from Duquesne	1	28.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.7
Aleksas BieliauskasF · transfer from Wisconsin	1	28.0	10.0	4.0	2.0	+2.8	+2.4
Camden HeideF · transfer from Texas	1	25.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	+2.2	+1.9
Davion HannahG · transfer from Alabama	1	23.0	11.0	9.0	4.0	+3.2	+2.1
Shane BlakeneyG · transfer from Drexel	1	21.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.4
Juan FernandezF	1	19.0	20.0	7.0	3.0	−0.2	+0.6
Eli SparkmanG	1	14.0	6.0	0.0	2.0	+0.6	+0.7
Hugo LopezF	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Hayden AssemianF	1	4.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 117	50.6%rank 254	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.4%rank 25	18.8%rank 100	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.3%rank 20	31.5%rank 152	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.1%rank 335	26.1%rank 259	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.7 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.5
Last season's net rating: +7.0
Last season's minutes returning: 10%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.9
Change since preseason: +4.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.1 (rank 82)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.6 (rank 84)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.1 (rank 302)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.2 (rank 247)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.1	88.3	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.8	119.0	91.2	8
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+25.0	115.7	90.8	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.2	93.8	13
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.7	95.9	19
6	Texas	1-0	0-0	+21.8	119.5	97.7	20
7	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	24
8	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.6	116.3	95.7	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.2	118.0	97.8	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	113.8	94.1	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+17.0	112.2	95.2	36
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	113.0	96.1	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.4	113.9	98.5	48
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.2	98.0	60
15	Mississippi State	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.9	101.4	66
16	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.1	100.6	81